摘要
为解决铁路隧道施工安全风险等级评定和趋势分析的问题,基于工程资料和相关文献,应用层次全息建模(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling,HHM)理论从自然环境、地质条件、施工技术、施工管理四个维度开展铁路隧道施工安全风险因素辨识工作。以相关技术规范为依据,结合专家经验构建铁路隧道安全风险评估指标体系。选用G1法、改进基于指标间相关性分析的权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)、最小二乘法测算评估指标权重,运用集对分析理论建立铁路隧道施工安全风险评估模型,遵循级别特征值判别规则评定安全风险等级,基于偏联系数理论分析安全风险发展趋势,并成功应用于D隧道的安全风险等级评定和趋势分析,验证了评估方法的可行性和科学性,为铁路隧道施工安全风险评估提供了一种新方法,为铁路隧道施工安全风险管控提供理论支撑。
The purpose of this study is to settle the problem of safety risk level assessment and trend analysis in railway tunnel construction.Based on engineering data and relevant literature,the HHM(Hierarchical Holographic Modeling)theory is applied to identify safety risk factors in railway tunnel construction.The identification of safety risk factors in railway tunnel construction is carried out from four dimensions:natural environment,geological conditions,construction technology,and construction management.A survey questionnaire is used to screen the preliminarily identified list of risk factors and obtain the final list of risk factors.Based on relevant technical specifications and expert experience,a railway tunnel safety risk assessment index system is constructed.The four levels of threshold intervals:low,moderate,high,and extremely high for each index are divided.This paper selected the G1 method to get the subjective and the enhanced Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method to get the objective weight.The combination weight calculation formula is determined based on the least squares idea.A genetic algorithm is written by MATLAB to solve for the optimal value of the combination weight.A model for railway tunnel safety risk assessment is established using set pair analysis theory.This study follows the discriminant rules of level eigenvalues to evaluate the level of safety risk in railway tunnel construction and analyzes the development trend of safety risk in railway tunnel construction based on the theory of partial connection coefficient.The risk assessment model constructed above is applied to evaluate the safety risk level and trend analysis of Tunnel D.It is found that the safety risk level of Tunnel D construction is II,and the safety risk of Tunnel D construction has a positive development trend.The analysis results are identical to the reality.The research results indicate that the model is practicable and scientific,providing a new method for safety risk assessment in railwa
作者
张飞涟
徐玮婧
王梦琴
罗玲
ZHANG Feilian;XU Weijing;WANG Mengqin;LUO Ling(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期2473-2482,共10页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71942006)。
关键词
安全工程
铁路隧道
施工安全
集对分析
风险评估
趋势分析
safety engineering
railway tunnel
construction safety
set pair analysis
risk assessment
trend analysis
