摘要
针对复杂艰险地区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险问题,综合考虑复杂艰险地区地质结构、气候条件和施工方法等,利用Python对隧道施工安全风险文献资料和安全风险评估报告进行文本挖掘,并基于事故致因理论、风险识别理论和风险因素核对表等对隧道钻爆法施工安全风险因素进行辨识。针对安全风险因素从施工环境、施工技术、材料设备、施工管理、施工人员5个方面构建较为完善的复杂艰险地区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险评估指标体系,并利用博弈论对层次分析法和熵权法进行组合,确定安全风险评估指标权重。采用二维云模型从安全风险发生概率和安全风险损失程度2个方面构建复杂艰险地区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险评估模型,提出采用主、客观概率相结合的方法确定安全风险发生概率,采用雷达图法从人员伤亡、经济损失、工期延误、环境影响和社会影响等方面综合确定安全风险损失程度。结合MATLAB实现定性评估和定量评估的相互转换,并引入贴近度的概念定量确定复杂艰险地区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险评估等级。对Z隧道钻爆法施工安全风险进行评估,确定其施工安全风险等级为IV级,施工安全风险程度为高度,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,为复杂艰险地区铁路隧道钻爆法施工安全风险评估提供借鉴和参考。
In view of the safety risk of railway tunnel construction by drilling and blasting method in complex and dangerous areas,comprehensive consideration was given to the geological structure,climatic conditions and construction methods in complex and dangerous areas.The text mining of tunnel construction safety risk literature and safety risk assessment report were carried out by using Python,based on the accident cause theory,risk identification theory and risk factor checklist.The risk factors of tunnel drilling and blasting construction are identified.In view of the safety risk factors,a relatively complete safety risk assessment index system for railway tunnel drilling and blasting construction in complex and dangerous areas was constructed from five aspects,which were construction environment,construction technology,materials and equipment,construction management and construction personnel.The combination of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method were used to determine the weight of safety risk assessment index.The two-dimensional cloud model was used to construct a safety risk assessment model for railway tunnel drilling and blasting construction in complex and dangerous areas from the aspects of safety risk probability and safety risk loss degree.The method of combining subjective probability with objective probability was proposed to determine the probability of safety risk.The degree of loss of safety risk was determined by radar chart from the aspects of casualty,economic loss,delay of construction period,environmental impact and social impact.Qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation were transformed by Matlab,and the concept of close degree was introduced to quantitatively determine the level of safety risk assessment of railway tunnel drilling and blasting in complex and dangerous areas.The safety risk of Z tunnel drilling and blasting method is evaluated,and the grade of safety risk is determined to be grade IV and the degree of safety risk is high.The result proves the feasib
作者
张飞涟
吴喆
王小兰
何媛媛
ZHANG Feilian;WU Zhe;WANG Xiaolan;HE Yuanyuan(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期1891-1901,共11页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金专项资助项目(71942006)。
关键词
复杂艰险地区
铁路隧道
钻爆法
安全风险评估
博弈论
二维云模型
complex and dangerous area
railway tunnel
drilling and blasting method
safety risk assessment
game theory
two-dimensional cloud mode
