摘要
本文基于多部门增长模型和中国城镇住户调查数据估计消费者的偏好特征并分析消费需求影响中国产业结构转型的逻辑。研究表明,样本期内中国消费者的收入每增加1%,农产品、工业产品和服务业产品的需求量各增加约0.51%、1.11%和1.31%。相比于服务业产品,消费者对农产品的低偏好更为明显,这对中国产业结构转型有重要影响。反事实实验表明,1978—2018年需求侧因素(家庭消费)对中国产业结构转型的贡献比例大约为80%。最后,基于理论模型,本文探讨了消费需求对中国数字产业发展的作用。
Based on a multi-sector growth model and urban household survey data from China,this study estimates consumer preference characteristics and examines how consumer demand influence macroeconomic structural transformation.Research has shown that for every 1%increase in Chinese consumer income during the sample period,the demand for agricultural products,industrial products,and service products each increased by approximately 0.51%,1.11%,and 1.31%.Consumer preferenc‐es exhibit a stronger aversion towards agricultural products compared to services.This has a significant impact on the transformation of industrial structure.Counterfactual experiments indicate that the contri‐bution of demand side factors(household consumption)to the transformation of China’s industrial structure from 1978 to 2018 was approximately 80%.Finally,based on the theoretical model,this arti‐cle explores the role of household demand in the development of China’s digital industry.
作者
瞿锴
Qu Kai(Shcool of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058)
出处
《浙江社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期4-17,155,共15页
Zhejiang Social Sciences
关键词
产业结构转型
消费需求
收入弹性
industrial structure transformation
consumer demand
income elasticity
