基于主体基建模(ABM)的中国智能制造装备产业演化研究

Evolution of China's Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment Industry:Research Based on ABM Model

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摘要智能制造装备面向的是具有复杂决策机制的制造企业,因此其产业演化规律相较于其他新兴产业有更强的特殊性。目前中国智能制造装备的市场份额较少、缺乏竞争优势,智能制造装备企业难以实现可持续发展。因此,在关键核心技术短期无法突破场景下,探讨政府高效推动智能制造装备市场结构变化、对智能制造装备产业演化的作用机制。通过问卷调查收集智能制造装备市场真实数据,在主体基建模方法(ABM)框架下构建国内外智能制造装备企业决策模型与制造企业决策模型,模拟智能制造装备产业演化过程,分析智能制造装备企业数量、市场需求数量和市场需求分布等市场结构核心参量变化特征,并进一步探究不同扶持政策对产业演化的作用效果。结果发现:在智能制造装备产业演化过程中,市场需求结构的变化是改变国产智能制造装备企业市场份额的关键要素,国产智能制造装备企业市场需求数量经历“增长—下跌—再增长”3个阶段,市场需求在空间上呈“分散—集聚—扩散”分布;在无外部力量干预的情境下,国产智能制造装备企业的市场份额存在显著的持续下降趋势,无论是面向市场需求数量还是面向产品质量提升的政策措施都有利于提升国产智能制造装备企业在产业中的市场状况;不同的政策策略对产业演化进程产生的效果不同,面向产品质量提升的政策对提升国产智能制造装备企业的市场份额效果更显著。 Intelligent manufacturing equipment is aimed at manufacturing enterprises with complex decision-making mechanisms,so its industrial evolution law has stronger specificity compared to other emerging industries.At present,the market share of intelligent manufacturing equipment in China is relatively small and lacks competitive advantages,making it difficult for intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises to achieve sustainable development.Therefore,in the scenario where key core technologies cannot be breakthrough in the short term,this paper explores the mechanism of the government's efficient promotion of changes in the market structure of intelligent manufacturing equipment and its impact on the evolution of the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry.The paper collects real data on the intelligent manufacturing equipment market through a questionnaire survey,and constructs decision-making models for intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises and manufacturing enterprises both inside and outside the country under the framework of the subject based modeling method(ABM)to simulate the evolution process of the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry,and further analyzes the changes in core market structure parameters such as the number of intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises,market demand quantity,and market demand distribution,also explores the effects of different support policies on industry evolution.The results show that in the evolution process of the intelligent manufacturing equipment industry,the change in market demand structure is a key factor in changing the market share of domestic intelligent manufacturing equipment enterprises,the number of market demands has gone through three stages of"growth decline re growth",while the market demand shows a spatial distribution of"dispersion agglomeration diffusion".In the absence of external intervention,there is a significant and continuous downward trend in the market share of domestic intelligent manufacturing equipment enterpris

作者何建洪荣鑫萍蔡丹罗文竹 He Jianhong;Rong Xinping;Cai Dan;Luo Wenzhu(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Chongqing 400065,China)

机构地区重庆邮电大学经济管理学院

出处《科技管理研究》 CSSCI 2024年第12期104-113,共10页 Science and Technology Management Research

基金国家社会科学基金项目“面向自立自强的我国科技领军企业新兴技术创新生态主导力提升研究(22BGL046)” 国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“我国数据要素市场体系的顶层设计(72241422)”。

关键词智能制造装备产业演化国产化市场需求政府扶持市场结构主体基建模方法(ABM) 制造企业 intelligent manufacturing equipment industrial evolution localization market demand government support market structure agent-based model manufacturing industry