摘要
在促进城乡融合发展背景下,本文估算1978一2021年中国农村劳动力省际转移量,据此识别农村劳动力省际转移方向,并运用社会网络分析方法刻画其时空特征和演变规律。本文研究有以下几点发现:其一,1978一2021年,中国农村劳动力转移总量呈上升趋势,其省际转移路径呈复杂网络特征,并形成以珠三角为转入中心的长江以南圈、以长三角为转入中心的长江黄河圈、以京津冀为转入中心的黄河以北圈和以新疆为转入中心的黄河西北圈。农村劳动力主要转入地由东南转至东部地区,且呈现向中西部地区回流的趋势。其二,农村劳动力省际转移具有“门当户对”的梯度性渐次转移特征和“近水楼台先得月”的就近转移特征,表现为农村劳动力由人均地区生产总值位次居中或靠后的“转出块”转至经济活力较强的“桥梁块”,再由“桥梁块”转入经济较发达的“转入块”。农村劳动力转入和转出省份的地理位置分布具有“核心一边缘”特征。其三,转移劳动力的平均受教育水平不断提高,表明转移劳动力“质”的优势在提升。如何将转移劳动力“量”的优势转化为“质”的优势,形成“新人口红利”,这是发挥转移劳动力群体优势的关键所在。基于此,在中国大国经济和区域发展不平衡的特征事实下,尊重农村劳动力“梯度”转移的规律和特征,协调城镇化与乡村振兴的关系,进一步促进农村劳动力在省际和城乡之间的优化配置,对于城乡融合发展和乡村振兴战略目标的实现具有重要意义。
Under the background of promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas,this paper estimates the volume of inter-provincial transfer of rural labor in China from 1978 to 2021,identifies the direction of interprovincial transfer of rural labor,and uses social network analysis methods to depict its spatiotemporal characteristics and evolution patterns.This study finds that,first,from 1978 to 2021,the total transfer volume of China's rural labor force shows an upward trend,with interprovincial transfer paths exhibiting complex network characteristics and forming four major circles:the southern circle of the Yangtze River with the Pearl River Delta as the inflow center,the Yangtze River and Yellow River circle with the Yangtze River Delta as the inflow center,the northern circle of the Yellow River with the Beijing-Tianjin Hebei region as the inflow center,and the northwestern circle of the Yellow River with Xinjiang as the inflow center.The main destinations of rural labor transfer shift from southeast to eastern regions,and there is a trend of returning to the central and western regions.Second,the interprovincial transfer of rural labor force shows a characteristic of nearby transfer in terms of economic level gap and geographical distance gap.The rural labor force shifs from the"outflow block'with a middle or lower per capita GDP to the bridge block"with stronger economic vitality,and then to the"inflow block"with more developed economy.The geographical distribution of labor force transfer in and out of provinces has a"core periphery"characteristic.Third,the continuous improvement of the average education level of the transferred labor force indicates that the"quality"advantage of the transferred labor force is improving.How to transform the advantage of transferring labor force from"quantity"to"quality",forming a"new demographic dividend",is the key to leveraging the advantages of transferring labor force groups.Based on this,under the characteristics of China's great scale of economy and imbalance
作者
贾晓佳
程名望
JIA Xiaojia;CHENG Mingwang
出处
《中国农村经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期72-93,共22页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“城乡融合视角下推进以人为核心的新型城镇化研究”(编号:22AZD048)的资助。
关键词
农村劳动力
省际转移
网络分析
时空特征
Rural Labor Force
Interprovincial Transfer
Network Analysis
Spatiotemporal Characteristics
