摘要
基于2010—2021年中国西部民族地区乡村产业融合示范县、示范园和先导区试点县域的面板数据,采用渐进双重差分法与中介效应方法,实证分析乡村产业融合发展对西部民族地区县域经济韧性的作用机制及异质性影响。结果表明:乡村产业融合显著提升西部民族地区县域经济韧性,提升水平约1.5%,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验依然成立;机制分析表明,农业劳动生产率与产业结构高级化是乡村产业融合提升县域经济韧性的两个重要渠道,其中产业结构高级化政策效应更为显著;异质性分析发现,乡村产业融合对西南民族地区县域经济韧性提升的政策效应更加明显;分维度分析显示,乡村产业融合主要从抵抗能力、适应能力和变革能力等3个维度对县域经济韧性发挥积极作用,在恢复能力维度作用还不显著。据此,建议西部民族地区增设县域产业园区,构建全产业链;提高经营主体劳动效率,优化乡村农业产业结构;强化农业风险管理意识,推广农业技术。
Used panel data spanning the period from 2010 to 2021,covering pilot counties engaged in rural industrial integration,demonstration parks,and pilot zones in ethnic areas of western China,the paper explores the mechanisms driving the development of rural industrial integration and its impact on the economic resilience of these counties.Using the method of gradual double difference method and mediating effects,the results show that rural industrial integration significantly bolsters the economic resilience of counties in western ethnic areas by approximately 1.5%.This finding withstands rigorous testing,ensuring its robustness.Mechanism analysis identifies agricultural labor productivity and advancements in rural industrial structure as pivotal conduits through which rural industrial integration enhances the economic resilience of counties.Especially,the policy effect of advancing industrial structure is particularly pronounced.Heterogeneity analysis further underscores that the policy’s impact on enhancing county economic resilience is notably evident in Southwest ethnic areas.Sub-dimensional analysis reveals that rural industrial integration predominantly contributes positively to county economic resilience across three dimensions--resistance capacity,adaptive capacity,and change capacity.However,the role of the resilience capacity dimension is not yet statistically significant.Consequently,recommendations encompass the establishment of more rural industrial parks in Western ethnic areas,the cultivation of complete industrial chains,the enhancement of labor efficiency in business entities optimization of the rural agricultural industrial structure,reinforcement of awareness regarding agricultural risk management,and promotion of agricultural technology.
作者
朱炳钦
李婷
ZHU Bingqin;LI Ting(School of History and Society,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830017,China;School of Business,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830017,China;Institute of Rural Development,Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences,Urumqi 830017,China)
出处
《农林经济管理学报》
北大核心
2024年第4期414-424,共11页
Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BMZ015)。
关键词
西部民族地区
乡村产业融合
县域经济韧性
渐进双重差分法
中介效应
western ethnic areas
rural industrial integration
county economic resilience
gradual double difference method
mediating effects
