摘要
【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域,基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.53种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料,选取作物水分亏缺指数(crop water deficit index,CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征,选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算,基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险,构建干旱风险指数,评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】(1)1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征,表现为内蒙古东四盟(57.3%)>黑龙江省(40.6%)>辽宁省(39.5%)>吉林省(38.9%)。(2)研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中,2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱,生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱,生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。(3)1981—2060年,SSP1-2.6低排放情景下,东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少,极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩,2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%;而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下,较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加,且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张,2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来�
【Objective】Drought was one of the main natural disasters which influencing agricultural production in China.As the largest maize production region in China,the frequent droughts caused by climate change have significantly affected the production of spring maize in the Northeast China.In this study,the risk of spring maize drought and its spatial pattern under future climate scenarios in the Northeast China was assessed,so as to provide a scientific basis for preventing spring maize drought and ensuring high-stable spring maize yield.【Method】The spring maize potential planting area was focused on.Based on the daily weather data of three climate scenarios(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSPs),i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 output from MPI-ESM1.2-HR model under the Inter Statistical Impact Model Intercomparision Project(ISIMIP)from 1981 to 2060 and the spring maize phenology data from 53 agro-meteorological observation stations,the Crop Water Deficit Index(CWDI)as the agricultural drought index was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of different levels of drought in different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China.The optimal probability theory distribution function was selected to estimate the probability of drought index series.The drought risk index was constructed by using different levels of drought risk for spring maize at each point estimated based on information diffusion theory.Then,spring maize drought risk in the Northeast China was assessed under different climate scenarios and future changes in the spatial pattern of risk areas by class.【Result】(1)The drought index of spring maize in the whole growth period in research region from 1981 to 2014 was generally characterized by a high drought in the southwest and low in the northeast,showing that the four eastern leagues of Inner Mongolia(57.3%)>Heilongjiang Province(40.6%)>Liaoning Province(39.5%)>Jilin Province(38.9%).(2)The drought intensity in the middle of spring maize growth was overall higher than that i
作者
杨王华
刘志娟
巩敬锦
付真真
张太林
张晓龙
沈彦军
杨晓光
YANG WangHua;LIU ZhiJuan;GONG JingJin;FU ZhenZhen;ZHANG TaiLin;ZHANG XiaoLong;SHEN YanJun;YANG XiaoGuang(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193;Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050022)
出处
《中国农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第12期2336-2349,共14页
Scientia Agricultura Sinica
基金
黑土地保护与利用科技创新工程专项(XDA28020503)
中国农业大学“2115人才工程”项目、拼多多—中国农业大学研究基金(PC2023B01004)。
