摘要
能源系统与生态系统之间存在着相互促进、相互制约等复杂关系,促进能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的协调发展对于我国贯彻新发展理念、实现“双碳”战略目标,以及推动经济社会高质量发展均具有十分重要的积极意义。为了深入开展对能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度研究,本文以我国30个省份(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,通过构建能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型以及GM-ARIMA模型,来测度分析和揭示2004—2021年我国30个省份能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度及其耦合协调度的时空演变特征,并且还对2022—2026年我国各省份能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度做出了预测分析。研究结果表明:1)从整体上看,2004—2021年我国30个省份的能源消费碳排放效率均值与生态韧性均值都分别小于0.6和0.7,耦合协调度类型主要有勉强协调、濒临失调、轻度失调、中度失调4种。2)从时序上看,2004—2021年我国30个省份的能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度分别呈现出了波动上升、波动下降、持续下降、平稳不变4种不同的变化趋势。3)从空间上看,2004—2021年我国30个省份的能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度均存在着显著的正向空间自相关性,且各省份的局部空间集聚模式都显现得相对平均。4)从预测结果上看,2022—2026年我国30个省份在情景2和情景3的能源消费碳排放效率与生态韧性的耦合协调度值要明显高于情景1,说明降低碳排放强度不但可以有效防治对生态的破坏,而且还能够推动经济社会能源消费结构的转型升级。
Energy system entangles with ecosystem with mutual promotion and constraints.Advancement of coordination between carbon emission efficiency of energy consumption and ecological resilience is key to China s“dual carbon”strategy and quality economy.To further study their coupling coordination,this paper establishes an index system of carbon emission of energy consumption and ecological resilience based on China s 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities),and applies coupling coordination model,spatial autocorrelation model and GM-ARIMA model to study 2004 to 2021 coupling coordination and its temporal-spatial evolution of China s 30 provinces in their carbon emission of energy consumption and ecological resilience,and forecasts their 2022 to 2026 coupling coordination.Their mean value 2004 to 2021 carbon emission efficiency of energy consumption and ecological resilience are less than 0.6 and 0.7,classified four coupling coordination types,basic coordinated,near mis-coordinated,light mis-coordinate,moderate mis-coordinated.From time scale,their coupling coordination during 2004 to 2021 had undergone fluctuated rising,fluctuated falling,continuously falling and stably unchanging trends.Geographically,their coupling coordination has a strong positive spatial auto-correlation with their local spatial concentrating model to be average.Forecast shows that their 2022 to 2026 coupling coordination values of scenario 2 and 3 is higher than scenario 1,suggesting decreasing carbon emission intensity can not only prevent ecological destruction,but also boost the transformation and upgrade of energy consuming structures.
作者
朱智洺
徐婕
李红艳
桂梦婷
ZHU Zhiming;XU Jie;LI Hongyan;GUI Mengting(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2024年第3期21-35,共15页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJL063)
江苏省社科应用研究精品工程项目(21SYB-077)。
关键词
能源消费碳排放效率
生态韧性
耦合协调度模型
时空分析
carbon emission efficiency of energy consumption
ecological resilience
coupling coordination model
spatiotemporal analysis
