摘要
随着对农业碳排放问题关注的增加,省级层面的研究对于指导减排工作具有关键作用。为揭示安徽省农业碳排放的时空演变规律及其影响因素,依据2003-2022年《安徽省统计年鉴》及各地级市相应统计年鉴,应用IPCC方法估算安徽省农业碳排放量,并采用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)方法分析农业碳排放影响因素及其贡献度。结果表明:(1)2002-2021年安徽省农业碳排放总量呈先增长后波动下降的趋势,2003年达到峰值2189.62万t,2004年开始波动下降,2021年下降至1243.36万t。(2)畜禽养殖为安徽省第一大碳排放源,2002年最高占比达82.09%,其中养牛产生的碳排放占比超过50%。(3)铜陵、芜湖和马鞍山的农业碳排放总量属于增长型,其他地级市农业碳排放总量处于下降阶段。(4)农业生产效率为安徽省农业碳排放的负向驱动关键性因素,2011年贡献率达到最低值0.66;农业经济发展水平为正向驱动关键性因素,2004年的贡献率达到最高值1.34。本研究结果可为农业碳减排方法和政策制定提供理论参考。
The issue of agricultural carbon emission is getting increasingly concern,and the study of agricultural carbon emission at provincial-level is of great significance for carbon reduction.To clarify the spatio-temporal variation rules and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province,the agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui Province was calculated by IPCC method in this study according to the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province from 2003 to 2022 and the statistical yearbook of each city.The influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions and their contribution degrees were analyzed by LMDI method.The results showed that:(1)from 2002 to 2021,the total agricultural carbon emission in Anhui Province showed a trend of increase first and then decrease with fluctuation,reaching a peak of 21.8962 million tons in 2003,which decreased with fluctuation from 2004 to 2021 of 12.4336 million tons.(2)Livestock and poultry breeding was the largest source of carbon emissions in Anhui Province,accounting for 82.09%in 2002,of which the carbon emissions from cattle farming accounted for more than 50%.(3)The total agricultural carbon emissions of Tongling,Wuhu and Maanshan were in the growth mode,while the total agricultural carbon emissions of other cities were in the decline stage.(4)Agricultural production efficiency was the key negative driving factor of agricultural carbon emissions in Anhui province,and its contribution rate reached the lowest value of 0.66 in 2011.The development level of agricultural economy was the key factor of positive driving force,and the contribution rate reached the highest value of 1.34 in 2004.These results could provide theoretical reference for agricultural carbon reduction methods and policy formulation.
作者
王青青
赵梦薇
罗晶晶
刘伟伟
WANG Qingqing;ZHAO Mengwei;LUO Jingjing;LIU Weiwei(College of Engineering,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2024年第16期104-111,共8页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“秸秆基碳量子点网络构筑及其聚乳酸复合膜材料的界面强化机理研究”(32301722)
安徽省重点研究与开发计划“绿色多功能秸秆炭基AM菌剂关键技术与产品研发”(202204c06020021)。
