摘要
将粮食主产区政策作为外部冲击政策的准自然实验,构建双重差分的识别框架,动态评估粮食主产区政策对粮食安全与农业绿色低碳协同发展的影响机制及作用路径。研究发现:粮食主产区的设立可以显著带动粮食安全与农业绿色低碳发展协同推进。粮食主产区设立的政策效应主要通过技术进步和产业结构调整两条路径对粮食安全与农业绿色低碳转型协同发展发挥作用,而且绿色技术进步的作用更为明显,需要深化“藏粮于技”。经营规模在粮食主产区政策的影响效应中具有调节作用。异质性分析表明,粮食适度规模经营可以强化粮食主产区的政策效应,随着老龄化程度的提高,粮食主产区的政策效应逐渐弱化,而内陆省份的粮食主产区政策效应的作用效果要优于沿海省份。
Taking the policy of es tablishing grain Production areas as a quasi-natural experiment of external shock poli-cies,this study constructs a double difference identification framework to dynamically evaluate the impact mechanism and pathways of the policy in major grain production areas on the synergy between food security and green low-carbon agnicultural development.The research finds that the esta blis hment of grain production areas can significantly promote the coordinated advancement of food security and green low-carbon development agriculture.The policy efect of establishing grain production areas mainly operates through two pathways:technological progress and industrial structure adjwstment.The role of green tec hnological progress is more pronounced,and it is nessary to deepen“biding grain in technology”.The scale of operation has a moderating efect on the impect efctiveness of grain production area policies.Heterogeneity analysis shows that moderate-scale farming can strengthen the policy effects of grain Production areas,while with an increase in aging.population,these effects gradually weaken In addition,inland provinces have better results from their grain production area policies compared to coastal provinces.
作者
郭海红
刘新民
GUO Haihong;LIU Xinmin
出处
《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》
北大核心
2024年第3期13-28,共16页
Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“粮食安全背景下农业绿色全要素生产率收敛性及影响机理研究”(21BGL160)。
关键词
粮食安全
农业绿色低碳转型
粮食主产区
产业结构
技术进步
food security
green and lowcarbon trans formation of agriculture
majφr grain producing areas
indutrial structure
technical progress
