摘要
在高纬度和高海拔地区河流凌汛现象频繁发生,常导致冰塞或冰坝洪水,严重威胁人身和财产安全。因此,全面考虑各因素进行科学的风险评价是预防凌汛灾害风险的首要前提和必然要求。研究基于突变理论构建凌汛灾害风险评价模型,引入灰色关联度分析法进行基础指标排序,对黑龙江上游地区凌汛灾害风险进行评价。鉴于不同指标之间的相互关联性,采用皮尔逊相关系数法精简指标集并选取代表性年份,依据代表年风险排序与层次聚类分析-突变理论所得结果进行比较。结果表明:在水文、气象、社会、经济等多因素影响下,2000年至2020年期间黑龙江上游漠河、塔河、呼玛三区凌汛灾害风险水平整体均呈现先增大后减小的趋势。其中,积雪深度、水位、冰厚、气温等要素与凌汛灾害发生频率之间表现出极高的相关性,而人口、农业、经济、医疗等社会因素也对洪水发生后的风险水平产生影响。漠河河段因其复杂陡峭的河流地形、恶劣的气候条件以及相对较高的人口密度,整体呈现出较高的风险水平。灰色关联度-突变理论模型风险隶属度值分布在0.85至0.93之间,且较层次聚类分析-突变理论模型具有更优的风险排序和安全裕度,验证了该模型在凌汛灾害风险评价中的有效性和实用性,为凌汛灾害风险研究提供了新的科学方法和理论依据。
River ice flood occurs frequently in regions with high latitudes and high altitudes,often resulting in ice jams or dam floods that pose serious threats to personal and property safety.Therefore,comprehensive consideration of all factors to conduct scientific risk evaluation is the primary prerequisite and essential requirement for preventing the risk of freezing flood disasters.This study establishes an ice flood disaster risk evaluation model based on catastrophe theory,introduces the Gray Relational Analysis method to rank basic indicators and evaluates the ice flood disaster risk in the upper reaches of Heilongjiang River.Considering the correlation between different indicators,the Pearson correlation coefficient method was employed to streamline the indicator set and select representative years.The obtained results were compared based on the risk ranking of these representative years and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis-Catastrophe Theory.The findings reveal that under the influence of hydrological,meteorological,social and economic factors,the risk level of ice flood disaster in the three districts of Mohe,Tahe and Huma in the upper reaches of Heilongjiang River during the period from 2000 to 2020 has shown an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing.Among them,factors such as snow depth,water level,ice thickness,and temperature show a remarkably high correlation with the frequency of ice flood disasters.Social factors such as population,agriculture,economy,and healthcare also influence the risk level after ice flood events.The Mohe River section,due to its complex and steep river terrain,harsh climatic conditions,and relatively high population density,exhibits an overall elevated risk level.The risk membership values of the Gray Relational Analysis-Catastrophe Theory model were distributed in the range of 0.85 to 0.93,and it has better risk ranking and safety margin than the Hierarchical Cluster Analysis-Catastrophe Theory model,which verifies the validity and practicability of the model in the evaluati
作者
徐鸿勋
李昱
肖兴涛
韩红卫
XU Hong-xun;LI Yu;XIAO Xing-tao;HAN Hong-wei(Heilongjiang Monitoring Center of Hydrology and Water Resources,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China;School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang Province,China;Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Water Conservancy Engineering in Cold Region,Harbin 150030,Heilongjiang Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2024年第6期105-113,123,共10页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022017)。
关键词
凌汛灾害
突变理论
灰色关联度
风险分析
黑龙江
ice flood disaster
catastrophe theory
Gray Relational Analysis
risk analysis
Heilongjiang River
