摘要
我国是世界第一工业大国和最大的碳排放国,在数字化背景下,研究数字化投入对工业碳排放的影响,对实现“双碳”目标、促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文构建引入数字化投入的我国工业碳排放LMDI分解模型,使用OECD公布的投入产出表数据,定量评估各驱动因素对碳排放量变化的绝对影响与相对贡献,重点关注数字化投入的作用。研究表明:2006-2021年,我国工业碳排放历年的增长量逐步减少,我国工业正处在减碳过程之中;分解结果中数字化相关的总效应为负,意味着数字化对于我国工业碳排放的降低具有显著的促进作用。其中,数字化相关的规模效应为正,技术效应为负,但在绝对值上技术效应大于规模效应,总体表现出“减碳”效果;分时期研究表明:从“十一五”到“十四五”时期,数字化投入的减碳效果正在逐步加深;分行业研究表明:数字化相关效应的表现在工业各行业部门中存在明显的异质性。基于此,应重视数字化碳减排效应,加速推进工业领域实现“数绿融合”;加大行业数字化投入,提升数字化低碳技术供给能力;鼓励不同行业部门特别是高耗能行业探索数字化减排新方案。
As the world's largest industrial nation and the top emitter of carbon,China's exploration of the impact of digitalization investments on industrial carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the“Dual Carbon”goals and promoting high-quality economic development.This paper develops an LMDI decomposition model for China's industrial carbon emissions that incorporates digitalization investments.Utilizing input-output table data published by the OECD,this study quantitatively assesses the absolute and relative contributions of various driving factors to the changes in carbon emissions,with a focus on the role of digitalization investments.The findings from 2006 to 2021 indicate that the annual increase in China's industrial carbon emissions has been gradually decreasing,suggesting that the industry is in the process of decarbonization.The overall digital-related effect is negative,indicating that digitalization significantly promotes the reduction of industrial carbon emissions in China.The scale effect related to digitalization is positive,whereas the technology effect is negative.However,the absolute value of the technology effect surpasses that of the scale effect,overall showing a decarbonization effect.A time-period analysis reveals that the decarbonizing impact of digitalization investments has been deepening from the“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”to the“Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”.An industry-specific study indicates significant heterogeneity in the performance of digital-related effects across different industrial sectors.Based on these findings,it is recommended to prioritize the carbon reduction impact of digitalization,accelerate the integration of digital and green technologies in the industrial sector,enhance investments in industry digitalization,improve the supply capacity of digital low-carbon technologies,and encourage high-energy-consuming industries in particular to explore new digital decarbonization strategies.
作者
胡雨朦
杨丹辉
HU Yumeng;YANG Danhui
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2024年第1期203-208,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济推动产业链供应链现代化水平提升的机制与对策研究”(课题编号:22&ZD095)。
关键词
工业碳排放
数字化投入
规模效应
技术效应
industrial carbon emissions
digitalization investments
scale effect
technology effect
