摘要
数字化转型是战略驱动的组织变革过程,依赖高层管理者的认知与决策行为。基于高阶理论,采用机器学习的集成算法,构建高维预测模型,以2015-2022年我国A股上市公司为研究对象,考察并比较CEO多维个人特征对企业数字化转型水平的预测效果。研究发现:(1)从整体来看,CEO个人特征能够预测企业数字化转型水平,并且不同特征的预测能力具有差异;(2)从不同特征维度来看,在数字化技术驱动和数字化成果产出方面,与其他几个维度相比,CEO能力特征的预测能力最高,而在数字化技术应用于企业价值创造各环节方面,CEO心理特征的预测能力最高;(3)从单个特征来看,CEO所有权权力、开放性、任期、过度自信和年龄等5个特征表现出最佳的预测效果,是CEO促进企业数字化转型水平提升的关键个人特征要素。
Digital transformation is a high-risk,long-term and systematic organizational change,which is highly dependent on the cognition and behavior of strategic decision-makers.Based on the Upper Echelons Theory,this research uses the machine learning ensemble algorithm to take China’s A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2022 as the research object,comprehensively investigates and compares the predictive ability of CEOs’multi-dimensional personal characteristics on the level of enterprise digital transformation from 5 dimensions and 16 elements,and it identifies the key personal characteristics of qualified“navigators”of digital transformation.The results show that:(1)CEOs’personal characteristics can predict the level of enterprise digital transformation,and the prediction ability of different characteristics is different.(2)From the comparison between feature groups,in terms of digital technology and digital output level,characteristics of CEO ability have the highest predictive ability;In terms of digital applications,CEO psychological characteristics have the highest predictive power.(3)From the perspective of individual characteristics,the five characteristics of CEO ownership,openness,tenure,overconfidence,and age show the best prediction effect,which are the key personal characteristics to promote the improvement of the digital transformation level of enterprises.
作者
于淼
刘铭基
赵旭
YU Miao;LIU Mingji;ZHAO Xu(International Business School,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;International Business School,Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100089,China;Surrey International Institute,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期173-187,共15页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“‘网络嵌入-资源拼凑’视角下的中小企业开放式创新机制研究”(71802042)。
关键词
数字化转型
CEO个人特征
事件预测
机器学习
digital transformation
CEO personal characteristics
event prediction
machine learning
