摘要
目的分析新疆和田地区肺结核发病特征及疫情前后发病趋势,为和田地区肺结核防控措施制定和效果评价提供参考依据。方法收集2015-2021年和田地区肺结核报告发病数据,建立连接点回归模型(JPR)和中断时间序列模型(ITS),分别探索肺结核的发病特征及新疆新冠肺炎疫情防控措施对和田地区肺结核发病趋势的影响,并分析不同性别和年龄亚组发病差异。结果JPR模型结果显示,2015-2021年和田地区肺结核报告发病率总体呈先升后降趋势,转折点出现在2018年12月;男性发病率略高于女性,转折点和发病趋势与总体一致;各年龄亚组≥60岁组发病率最高,发病趋势也呈先上升后下降趋势,≤18岁年龄组发病率在2021年6月出现转折点,但趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05),19~59岁组与≥60岁组转折点与总体一致;ITS模型结果显示,自2020年1月起和田地区肺结核发病率明显下降,从2019年的319.28/10万下降到2021年的155.88/10万,同比下降51.16%,月均下降0.049/10万。结论2018年新疆将结核病筛查工作纳入全民健康体检,大量结核病例被发现,和田地区肺结核的报告发病数在2018年12月达到峰值,随后开始下降,而2020年1月起在新疆新冠疫情隔离措施的影响下,报告发病率呈现明显下降。随着疫情结束应关注可能涌现的潜伏结核患者,做好防疫工作。
Objective To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture,before and after the epidemic,and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture.Methods The Hotan prefecture’s pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021.Joinpoint regression(JPR)model and Interrupted Time Series(ITS)model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis,as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan,respectively.Furthermore,an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out.Results The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021,the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased,with a turning point appearing in December 2018.The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females,and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend.Among all age subgroups,those≥60 age group had the highest incidence rate,with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease.A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021,yet the trend was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The turning points in the 19-59 age group and in those aged≥60 were consistent with the overall trend.The results of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020,dropping from 319.28 per 100000 in 2019 to 155.88 per 100000 in 2021,a decrease of 51.16%year-on-year,with a monthly average reduction of 0.049 per 100000.Conclusion In 2018,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis.In t
作者
依里帕·依力哈木
努尔比耶·约麦尔
武迪
时雨
郑彦玲
张利萍
Yilipa Yilihamu;Nuerbiye Yuemaier;Wu Di;Shi Yu;Zheng Yanling;Zhang Liping(Dept of Epidemiology and Statistics,School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017;Dept of Mathematics Teaching and Research,School of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017;Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Hotan Region in Xinjiang,Hotan 848099)
出处
《安徽医科大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第4期678-683,共6页
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui
基金
国家自然科学基金(编号:72163033、72064036、72174175)。
关键词
肺结核
趋势分析
连接点回归模型
中断时间序列
新型冠状病毒肺炎
疫情防控
pulmonary tuberculosis
trend analysis
joinpoint regression model
interrupt time series model
COVID-19
epidemic prevention and control
