摘要
金融发展和金融结构变化对个体婚姻行为和家庭决策具有深远影响,并对人口出生率产生持续冲击。全面系统评估金融发展对人口出生率的影响和内在作用机制,对于推动人口增长、实现人口高质量发展具有重要现实意义。首先通过构建三期世代交叠模型,从理论层面探究中国金融发展对人口出生率的差异化影响。其次使用中国31个省份2001~2022年的面板数据,从银行、证券与保险三个维度选取相应指标构建金融发展指数,对中国金融发展与人口出生率之间的关系进行实证分析,并详细探究其内在作用机制。研究发现:第一,金融发展对人口出生率的影响呈现先促进后抑制的倒U型关系,当金融发展水平低于拐点时,银行信贷系统占主导,金融发展有利于促进人口出生率的提高,当金融发展高于拐点时,证券投资占主导,金融发展会抑制人口出生率的提高,在进行多种稳健性检验和内生性检验后结论仍然成立;第二,金融发展对人口出生率的倒U型影响存在显著的区域异质性,在老龄化程度高和计划生育政策实施力度较强的地区表现更为显著;第三,随着现代金融市场的发展,个体规避风险所付出的代价和成本逐渐降低,生育惩罚效应逐渐显现,婚姻稳定性和家庭收入支出变动是金融发展影响人口出生率变动的重要作用机制。
Financial development and structural changes have a profound impact on individual marital behavior and family decision-making,and have a sustained impact on the birth rate.A comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the impact and underlying mechanisms of financial development on the birth rate is of great practical significance for promoting population growth and achieving high-quality population development.Firstly,by constructing a three gener⁃ation overlapping model,we explore the differential impact of China's financial development on the birth rate from a theoretical perspective.Secondly,using panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2022,corre⁃sponding indicators were selected from three dimensions:banking,securities,and insurance to construct a financial development index.Empirical analysis was conducted on the relationship between China's financial development and birth rate,and the underlying mechanisms were explored in detail.Research has found that:firstly,the impact of fi⁃nancial development on the birth rate shows an inverted U-shaped relationship of first promoting and then inhibiting.When the level of financial development is below the inflection point,the bank credit system dominates,and financial development is conducive to promoting the increase of the birth rate.When the level of financial development is above the inflection point,securities investment dominates,and financial development inhibits the increase of the birth rate.After conducting various robustness and endogenous tests,the conclusion still holds;Secondly,there is significant re⁃gional heterogeneity in the inverted U-shaped impact of financial development on birth rates,particularly in regions with high levels of aging and strong implementation of family planning policies;Thirdly,with the development of mod⁃ern financial markets,the cost and cost of individual risk avoidance gradually decrease,and the punishment effect of childbirth gradually becomes apparent.Marriage stability and changes in househ
作者
王旺
王宇伟
WANG Wang;WANG Yu-wei(School of Digital Economy and Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China)
出处
《西北人口》
北大核心
2024年第3期39-53,共15页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“金融业制度型开放助推构建新发展格局的路径研究”(项目编号:23&ZD059)
国家社科基金重大研究专项项目“新时代中国特色经济学基本理论问题研究”(项目编号:18VXK002)。
关键词
金融发展
人口出生率
婚姻
收入
Financial Development
Population Birth Rate
Marriage
Income
