摘要
目的 明确中国2005—2019年一期与二期梅毒发病情况及趋势,为我国梅毒防治提供理论依据。方法 提取中国公共卫生科学数据中心2005—2019年梅毒各年龄组发病人数、发病率数据。使用Joinpoint回归拟合发病率变化趋势;使用年龄-时期-队列模型(APC模型),分析梅毒发病风险的年龄-时期-队列效应。结果 Joinpoint结果显示,2005—2019年一期梅毒发病率平均每年下降1.90%,AAPC_(2005—2019)=-1.90(95%CI:-3.80~-0.01,P<0.05);二期梅毒发病率平均每年上升0.20%,AAPC_(2005—2019)=0.20(95%CI:-1.50~1.90,P>0.05)。2005—2009年,一、二期梅毒发病率呈上升趋势(APC=17.56%、14.18%),差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);2012—2019年,一、二期梅毒发病率呈下降趋势(APC=-13.82%、-8.74%),差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。APC结果显示,梅毒发病率受年龄、时期和队列的影响(P<0.001)。年龄效应显示,两个高风险年龄组为25~29岁及≥55岁。时期效应显示,发病风险呈先上升后下降趋势。队列效应显示,一期梅毒队列效应随着出生队列的后移而增加,但1998—2002年出生队列后出现下降趋势;二期梅毒2003—2007年出生队列后呈下降趋势。结论 2005—2019年一期、二期梅毒发病率呈先上升后下降趋势。青年和老年人群是高风险年龄组,需加强防控工作。为有效防治梅毒,应该实施针对性强的综合措施。
Objective To define the incidence and trend of primary and secondary syphilis in China from 2005 to 2019,and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of syphilis in China.Methods Data on the number and incidence of syphilis in all age groups from 2005 to 2019 were extracted from the China Public Health Science Data Center.Joinpoint regression was used to fit the trend of incidence.The APC model was used to analyze the age-period-cohort effect of syphilis risk.Results The results of Joinpoint showed that the incidence of primary syphilis decreased by 1.90% per year on average from 2005 to 2019,AAPC_(2005—2019)=-1.90(95%CI:-3.80~-0.01,P<0.05);The average annual rate of secondary syphilis increased by 0.20%,AAPC_(2005—2019)=0.20(95%CI:-1.50~1.90,P>0.05).From 2005 to 2009,the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis showed an increasing trend(APC was 17.56% and 14.18%),both of which were statistically significant(P<0.001).From 2012 to 2019,the incidence rate showed a decreasing trend(APC was-13.82% and-8.74%),both of which were statistically significant(P<0.001).The results of APC showed that the incidence of syphilis was affected by age,period and cohort(P<0.001).The age effect showed 25~29 years old and≥55 years old were two high-risk age groups.The period effect showed the risk of incidence increased firstly and then decreased.The cohort effect showed primary syphilis increased with the backwardness of the birth cohort,but there was a downward trend after the birth cohort from 1998 to 2002;Secondary syphilis showed a downward trend after the birth cohort from 2003 to 2007.Conclusion From 2005 to 2019,the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis increased firstly and then decreased.Young and elderly people were high-risk age groups,and prevention and control efforts need to be strengthened.In order to effectively prevent syphilis,a well-targeted and comprehensive measures should be implemented.
作者
古丽加衣娜·艾肯
周燚然
张宇航
王悦
亚库普·阿卜杜热克
巨珂珂
卢耀勤
Gulijiayina Aiken;ZHOU Yiran;ZHANG Yuhang;WANG Yue;Yakupu Abudureke;JU Keke;LU Yaoqin(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830054,China;Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi 830092,China)
出处
《中国皮肤性病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期540-546,共7页
The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区科学技术厅项目(2022TSYCTD0015)。
