摘要
长期贮存的多任务环境与复杂工况,对导弹装备的风险有效抑制与安全性准确评价提出了严格的要求。然而,导弹装备是典型的人-机-环耦合复杂系统,传统的安全性分析与评价方法无法满足其动态变化与准确量化的需求。为此,提出基于分层安全控制结构的导弹装备安全性动态评价方法,实现长期贮存任务情境下安全性的准确评价。首先,针对导弹装备的任务剖面特点,构建过程、任务、功能、信息和组织的多视图体系模型,实现任务过程与资源的准确描述。其次,构建分层安全控制结构模型,明确任务的事故致因因素与事故链。同时,针对导弹装备任务特点,构建面向长期贮存复杂多变环境下的人因绩效评价体系,实现人-机-环耦合条件下人因失误率的准确评价。然后,提出了一种融合STAMP和CREAM的安全动态反馈评价方法,以仿真的形式获得导弹任务的事故率。最后,对导弹测试任务进行案例分析,所提方法在人-机-环耦合情境下明确协调、控制和反馈共3类6个典型事故链,同时事故率精度提升70.08%,验证了所提方法的有效性与优越性。
The multi-mission environment and complex working conditions of long-term storage put forward strict requirements on the effective risk suppression and accurate safety evaluation of missile equipment.However,missile equipment is a typical man-machine-environment coupling complex system.Traditional safety analysis and evaluation methods cannot meet the requirements of its dynamic change and accurate quantification.Therefore,this paper proposes a safety dynamic evaluation method for missile equipment based on hierarchical safety control structure model to realize accurate safety evaluation under the long-term storage mission situation.First,according to the mission profile characteristics of missile equipment,a multi-view architecture model of process,mission,function,information and organization is constructed to achieve the accurate description of mission process and resource.Then,a hierarchical safety control structure model is proposed to determine the accident causal factors and accident chain of the targeted mission.Meanwhile,based on the mission characteristics of missile equipment,a human performance evaluation system is constructed for long-term storage in a complex and changeable environment,achieving accurate evaluation of human error rate under the man-machine-environment coupling condition.Moreover,a safety dynamic feedback evaluation method integrating STAMP and CREAM is proposed to obtain the accident rate of the missile mission through simulation.Finally,a case study of the missile test mission is performed.The proposed method specifies 6typical accident chains of 3 categories of coordination,control and feedback in the man-machine-environment coupling scenario.Meanwhile,the accuracy of the accident rate is improved by 70.08%,which verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
作者
姚博清
陈嘉宇
谷长超
陆钦华
王旭航
葛红娟
Boqing YAO;Jiayu CHEN;Changchao GU;Qinhua LU;Xuhang WANG;Hongjuan GE(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076,China)
出处
《航空学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期278-297,共20页
Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(52102474和U2233205)
中国博士后科学基金(2023M731663)
中央高校基本科研业务(XCXJH-20220725)。
关键词
长期贮存
人-机-环耦合
动态变化
准确量化
人因绩效评价体系
long-term storage
man-machine-environment coupling
dynamic change
accurate quantification
hu-manperformanceevaluationsystem
