摘要
韧性是衡量危机冲击下区域旅游经济高质量发展的关键指标。基于海南省旅游发展面板数据,评价COVID—19危机冲击下旅游经济韧性及后危机时代旅游经济恢复性增长,并运用地理探测器分析危机冲击下旅游经济韧性的影响因素。结果表明:①完整危机下海南省旅游经济韧性的区间为-2.792—4.855;当划分抵抗期和恢复期时,危机的不同时期下海南省旅游经济韧性的区间为-3.261—6.799;②截止2023年8月,海南省15个市县旅游经济实现恢复性增长,整个海南省旅游经济恢复性增长率均值为0.357,远高于危机冲击下恢复期增长率均值0.229;③旅游接待能力、经济发展水平、产业结构水平、居民收入水平是危机冲击下海南省旅游经济韧性的重要影响因素,经济发展水平是双因子交互中促进旅游经济韧性提升的主导因素,其中旅游接待能力和经济发展水平交互对旅游经济韧性的解释力达到0.547。
Resilience is the key indicator to measure the high-quality development of regional tourism economy under the impact of the crisis.Based on the panel data of tourism development in Hainan province,this paper evaluated the tourism economy resilience under the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the tourism economy recovery growth in the post-crisis era,and analyzed the factors affecting the tourism economy resilience under the impact of the crisis.The results showed that:①The tourism economy resilience in the course of the entire COVID-19 crisis was from 2.792 to 4.855.When distinguishing the resistance period and the recovery period,the tourism economy resilience under different periods of COVID-19 crisis was from 3.261 to 6.799.②By August 2023,the tourism economy of 15 cities in Hainan Province continued to recover,and the average growth rate of tourism economy in Hainan Province was 0.357,much higher than the average growth rate of 0.229 in the course of the recovery period under the impact of the crisis.③There were some important factors that affected Hainan′s tourism economy resilience under the impact of the crisis,including tourism reception capacity,economic development,industrial structure,residents′income,etc.The economic development was the leading factor to promote the tourism economy resilience in the interaction detector,among which the interaction of tourism reception capacity and economic development to illustrate the resilience of tourism economy reached 0.547.
作者
康佳奇
游长江
KANG Jiaqi;YOU Changjiang(College of International Tourism and Public Administration,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
2024年第4期614-621,共8页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41561111)。
关键词
危机
旅游经济韧性
恢复性增长
高质量发展
crisis
tourism economic resilience
recovery growth
high-quality development
