摘要
东部地区是我国经济最发达的地区,其物流业务量在全国地区中占比超过78%,物流业作为高碳能源依赖性产业,其发展必将伴随大量的碳排放.选择物流业能源投入、物流业资本投入和物流业劳动投入作为投入指标,以物流业产值以及物流业碳排放量作为产出指标,采用DEA-BCC模型对我国东部沿海10个地区的物流业静态碳排放绩效、纯技术效率以及规模效率进行评价.以具有持续发展潜力和国家生态战略地位的福建省为例,利用DEA-Malmquist指数模型测算福建省物流业动态碳排放绩效;此外,基于年末常住人口、城镇化率、人均GDP和清洁能源占比等4个因素构建拓展的STIRPAT模型,设定了基准情景、低碳情景与强化低碳情景,模拟不同情景下福建省物流业2011~2035年的碳排放量趋势.结果显示,在基准情景和低碳情景下,福建省物流业碳排放仍处于持续上升趋势,年均碳排放增长率分别达1.68%和1.50%,无法在2030年实现碳达峰;但在强化低碳情景下,福建省物流业的碳排放可在2030年达到峰值.基于研究结论提出福建省物流业绿色低碳的发展建议,为福建省“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标中物流业的低碳绿色发展路线提供借鉴和参考.
The eastern region is the most developed area in China's economy,with its logistics volume accounting for over 78%of the national total.As a high-carbon energy-dependent industry,the development of the logistics sector has inevitably resulted in significant carbon emissions.In this paper,the DEA-BCC model was employed to evaluate the static carbon emission performance,pure technical efficiency,and scale efficiency of the logistics industry in ten eastern regions of China.Logistics industry energy input,capital input,and labor input as input indicators,and logistics industry output value and carbon emissions were employed as output indicators.Moreover,taking Fujian Province as an example,known for its sustainable development potential and national ecological strategic position,the dynamic carbon emission performance of the logistics industry in Fujian Province was measured using the DEA-Malmquist index model.Additionally,an expanded STIRPAT model was constructed based on factors such as year-end resident population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,and the proportion of clean energy,with benchmark scenarios,low-carbon scenarios,and intensified low-carbon scenarios set to simulate the trends in carbon emissions in the logistics industry of Fujian Province from 2011 to 2035.The results showed that in both the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario,carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Fujian Province were still on a continuous upward trend,with average annual growth rates of 1.68%and 1.50%,respectively,making it unable to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.However,under an intensified low-carbon scenario,carbon emissions from the logistics industry in Fujian Province could reach their peak by 2030.Based on these research,recommendations for green and low-carbon development in the logistics industry in Fujian Province were proposed,providing guidance and reference for the low-carbon and green development roadmap of the logistics industry in Fujian Province as part of its"14th Five-Year P
作者
张兰怡
徐艺诺
王硕
翁大维
张思怡
戈秋虞
ZHANG Lanyi;XU Yinuo;WANG Shuo;WENG Dawei;ZHANG Siyi;GE Qiuyu(College of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350108,China)
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2024年第2期240-249,共10页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition
基金
福建省科技创新战略研究联合项目资助(2022R0137).
