摘要
国内国际经济循环演变伴随产业结构的变化,影响宏观劳动收入份额。本文构建了宏观劳动收入份额变动的国内国际经济循环及其因素结构分解框架,并利用1997-2020年全球投入产出表进行测算分析。结果表明:第一,产业内效应是影响中国宏观劳动收入份额变动的主导因素,在中国产业结构发生较大变化的阶段,产业结构效应也较为重要;第二,国内经济循环与国际经济循环在各阶段对中国宏观劳动收入份额变动的贡献方向相反,国内经济循环主导了产业结构效应的贡献,国内经济循环程度下降将降低宏观劳动收入份额,即国际循环(外循环)程度越大,宏观劳动收入份额越低;第三,国内经济循环中内需规模持续扩张、国内生产网络中服务业投入占比增加、国际经济循环中最终需求出口扩张以及持续深度参与国际生产网络均提高了劳动收入份额。
The evolution of domestic and international economic cycles is accompanied by changes in industrial structure,which in turn affects the aggregate share of labour income.This paper constructed a decomposition framework for domestic and international economic cycles and its factor structure of macro-labour income share changes,and the global input-output table from 1997 to 2020 is used for calculation and analysis.The findings suggest that:(1)The intra-industry effect is the dominant factor producing changes in China’s macro-labour income share at each stage,the industrial structure effect is also significant when China’s industrial structure undergoes major changes.(2)The contribution of the domestic economic cycle and that of the international economic cycle to changes in the macro-labour income share at each stage are opposite.The domestic economic cycle plays a dominant role in contributing to the industrial structure effects,the decline in the degree of domestic economic circulation will reduce the macro-labour income share.In other word,the greater the degree of international economic cycle(external circulation),the macro-labour income share is lower.(3)The expansion of domestic demand scale in the domestic economic cycle makes a significant positive contribution at all stages.The gradual increase in the proportion of service inputs in the domestic production network is also conducive to increasing China’s macro-labour income share.The expansion of final demand exports and the structural effects of international production networks on the international economic cycle further exhibit considerable positive effects at different stages.
作者
田野
倪红福
夏杰长
Tian Ye;Ni Hongfu;Xia Jiechang
出处
《世界经济》
北大核心
2024年第2期3-31,共29页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA063)
国家自然科学基金专项项目(72141309)
博士后基金面上项目(2023M743865)的资助,。
关键词
宏观劳动收入份额
产业结构
国内国际经济循环
投入产出表
macro-labour income share
industrial structure
domestic and international economic cycles
input-output model
