摘要
利用山东省84个气象台站的逐日降水资料、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCEP/NCAR)逐日再分析资料以及中国气象局(CMA)热带气旋资料中心的CMA最佳路径数据集,对1969—2020年夏季(6—8月)发生在山东的857例极端暴雨事件(Extreme rainstorm events, EREs)的时空分布特征及影响环流分型进行了分析。结果表明:山东夏季EREs主要集中在7和8月,8月极端暴雨降水量占当月总降水量的比值最大,可达53.5%。山东夏季极端暴雨降水量以及极端暴雨发生日数呈现不显著的增加趋势,8月的增加趋势最明显。使用经验正交函数分解对影响山东夏季EREs的大气环流系统进行分型,发现影响山东夏季出现EREs的环流系统主要有4类,其中,影响ERE最多的环流系统是北方气旋型,约占事件总频次的33.1%;其次是高空急流型,占比约11.3%;南方气旋型和热带气旋型的环流型影响相当,出现的概率分别为9.7%和9.4%。
Based on datasets of daily precipitation data from 84 meteorological stations in Shandong province,the National Center of Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)daily reanalysis datasets and the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)best path datasets of the Tropical Cyclone Data Center of CMA,857 extreme rainstorm events(EREs)in Shandong province from 1969 to 2020 were analyzed.The results show that EREs mainly concentrated in July and August in summer in Shandong Province.The ratio of extreme rainstorm precipitation in August to the total precipitation of the month is the largest,which can reach 53.47%.The extreme rainstorm precipitation and the number of days of extreme rainstorm in summer in Shandong province showed insignificant increasing trend.The increasing trend was most pronounced in August.Using empirical orthogonal function(EOF)to classify the circulation systems that affect summer EREs in Shandong province,results show that there are four main types of EREs circulation systems that affect the occurrence of summer EREs in Shandong Province.Among them,the most frequent circulation system affecting ERE was the northern cyclone type,accounting for about 33.1%of the total event frequency.The next is the upper-level jet type,accounting for about 11.3%.The number of southern cyclone and tropical cyclone is almost equal,and the probability of occurrence is 9.7%and 9.4%respectively.
作者
曹倩
黄菲
欧阳婧怡
曲颖慧
Cao Qian;Huang Fei;Ouyang Jingyi;Qu Yinghui(College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ministry of Education,Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System,Ocean Universtiy of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao 266237,China;Xiangshan County Meteorological Bureau,Ningbo 315712,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期1-12,共12页
Periodical of Ocean University of China
基金
山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)资助。
关键词
极端暴雨事件
环流型
南方气旋
北方气旋
高空急流
extreme rainstorm events
circulation type
southern cyclone
northern cyclone
upper-level jet
