摘要
利用山东省117个气象站1961—2013年逐日降水观测数据,根据选取的9个极端降水指数,分析了区域内各极端降水指数的时间变化趋势和空间分布规律,并探讨了各极端降水指数与总降水量之间的关系。结果表明:长时段(1961—2013年)中一日最大降水量(RX1d)、最大连续五日降水量(RX5d)、降水强度(SDⅡ)、最长连续无雨日数(CDD)增大趋势不明显,其他各指数均有减小趋势,短时段(1991—2013年)除RX1d,CDD呈减小趋势,其他各指数均有增大趋势。不同地区两时段各极端降水指数变化趋势并不相同,短时段变幅更大同时变化显著的站点更多。除CDD和总降水量有近三分之一的站点为不显著的负相关外,其他指数和总降水量多为显著正相关。
Based on daily precipitation data recorded in 117 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during the period from 1961 to 2013,the temporal variability and spatial distributions of extreme precipitations were studied by using nine extreme precipitation indices.At the same time,the possible connections between extreme precipitation indices and annual total precipitation were analyzed.The main conclusions are as the followings.In the past 53years（long period）,an decreasing trend was observed in terms of the indices such as annual total precipitation extremes（R95PTOT）,annual count of days with RR≥10mm（R10）,RR≥20mm（R20）,and RR≥50mm（R50）,maximum number of consecutive wet days（CWD）,while an non-significantly enhanced trend was observed in terms of the indices such as the maximum 1-day precipitation amount（RX1d）,the maximum 5-day precipitation amount（RX5d）,maximum number of consecutive dry days（CDD）and the simply daily intensity index（SDⅡ）.In the past 23years（short period）,an increasing trend was observed in terms of the indices except RX1 d,CDD.Each extreme precipitation index trend between long period and short period was not same in different regions.Amplitude in short period was greater and stations with significantly trend were more than long period.The correlation coefficients between most extreme precipitation indices and annual total precipitation were positive or even significant positive except one third of stations between CDD and annual total precipitation which had no significant negative correlations.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期120-127,共8页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
山东省气象局科技项目"山东省极端强降水变化特征及应用研究"(2015sdqxm05)
山东省飑线的天气学概念模型研究(2015sdqxm01)
关键词
气候变化
极端降水指数
山东省
climate change
extreme precipitation
Shandong Province
