摘要
随着经济全球化和“一带一路”建设不断推进,国际旅游业作为旅游和国际服务贸易的重要组成部分,日渐成为推动沿线经济发展、促进文化交流的重要载体。本研究从地理学视角构建衡量国际旅游业发展水平的指标,分析2008—2019年“一带一路”沿线国际旅游业发展格局及演变态势,并运用时空地理加权回归模型分析其影响因素及其空间差异。研究结果显示:(1)“一带一路”沿线国际旅游业发展水平整体呈先缓慢下降后逐渐上升态势,国家(地区)间发展差距呈先显著扩大后缓慢缩小态势;“一带一路”倡议有效减缓沿线国际旅游业发展水平下降的趋势,并促进国家(地区)间发展差距的缩小。(2)沿线国际旅游业发展整体呈中俄波三极高、西亚-东南亚发展带高、内陆低的格局。(3)沿线国家(地区)国际旅游业发展的关键驱动因素是航空系统水平;核心因素为经济发展水平和吸引外资能力;次要因素包括外贸依赖程度、通讯和电力系统水平、政府监管质量。(4)不同区域的主要影响因素差异较大,航空系统水平和吸引外资能力是所有区域的核心驱动因素。中国内地及港澳地区的主要驱动因素为经济发展水平、网络和通讯设施水平;蒙俄、中亚和西亚北非地区为经济发展水平、外贸依赖程度和电力系统水平;东南亚和南亚地区为外贸依赖程度、政府监管质量、网络和通讯系统水平;中东欧国家为经济发展水平、政府监管质量、电力和网络系统水平。
With the construction of the Belt and Road,international tourism,as an important part of tourism and international service trade,has become an important carrier to promote economic development and cultural exchanges along the Belt and Road.This paper constructs an index to measure the development level of international tourism,analyzes the evolution trend of international tourism along the Belt and Road from 2008 to 2019,and explores the influencing factors and their spatial differences by applying GTWR model.The results show that:(1)The international tourism along the Belt and Road presents a slow decline and then a gradual increase,and the development gap first expands significantly and then narrows slowly.The Belt and Road Initiative has effectively slowed down the decline of the international tourism development level,and plays a vital role in narrowing the development gap.(2)The development of international tourism along the Belt and Road presents a spatial pattern of“high in China,Russia and Poland,high in the belt of West Asia-Southeast Asia and low in inland areas”.(3)The key driving factor for the development of international tourism along the Belt and Road is aviation system level.The core driving factors are the level of economic development and the ability to attract foreign investment,followed by foreign-trade dependence,electricity and communication system level,and the government regulatory quality.(4)The main influencing factors in different regions vary dramatically:aviation system level and the ability to attract foreign investment are core driving factors in all regions.The main driving factors of the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong,Macao are the level of economic development,the level of network and communication systems;Mongolia and Russia,Central Asia,West Asia and North Africa are the level of economic development,foreign-trade dependence and the level of electricity system;Southeast Asia and South Asia are foreign-trade dependence,government regulatory quality,network and communication
作者
戴亦杨
宋周莺
Dai Yiyang;Song Zhouying(College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《中国生态旅游》
CSCD
2023年第6期941-961,共21页
Journal of Chinese Ecotourism
基金
中国科学院海外科教合作中心部署项目(162GJHZ2022004MI)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK1007)。
关键词
一带一路
国际旅游业
时空格局
影响因素
时空地理加权回归
the Belt and Road Initiative
international tourism
spatiotemporal pattern
influencing factors
GTWR model
