摘要
疫情爆发初期,应急部门如何选择应急采购启动时间点并优化采购方案,对提高疫情防控效果意义重大。首先,针对应急采购启动时间点的优选问题,设计了疫情观测停止(或采购启动)最优时间的判断规则,并结合理论分析获得最优停时的边界特征及影响因素;其次,针对采购启动后的采购方案优化问题,综合考虑了不同供应商在订货批量、采购提前期、缺货率方面的差异,并构建一类混合整数规划模型;最后,将上述两问题集成考虑,依据疫情预测、应急效果对比、停时判断、参数更新的循环决策思想,构建一类数据驱动的应急采购框架模型,既确保采购决策以疫情数据为依据,又保证疫情数据被实时更新。结合数值实验可知:通过求解模型,可根据疫情演化来获得应急采购启动时间、供应商选择和订单分配的集成优化方案。
Rational allocation of emergency medical resource is crucial for epidemic prevention and control.However,in the early stage of the epidemic,emergency departments are often difficult to accurately predict its spread trend in the first time,and need to update and revise the prediction results through continuous learning of new information in the later stage.Thus,early launch of emergency procurement plans may lead to idle resources due to the inaccurate prediction of epidemic evolution,and late launch may lead to the risk of resource shortage.In this context,optimal selection of the start time of resource procurement becomes an important deci‐sion problem faced by emergency departments.Since the 21st century,emergency procurement problems has been widely concerned and deeply studied by scholars.However,most of the existing studies only focus on sup‐plier selection,order allocation,contract design problems under the background of natural disasters such as earthquake and hurricane,but little attention is paid to the start point selection of emergency procurement under the background of epidemic.In particular,compared with natural disasters,the evolution of the epidemic has dynamic and time-varying characteristics,which brings new challenges to the procurement optimization problem.In this context,a novel emergency procurement optimization problem is present under the epidemic situation.Firstly,in order to obtain the optimal start time of emergency procurement,an epidemic observation stopping time(or emergency start-up time)judgment rules is proposed,and the boundary characteristics and influencing factors of the optimal start-up time are analyzed.Secondly,in order to obtain an effective supplier selection and order allocation scheme after starting procurement,a novel mixed integer programming model is proposed after comprehensively considering the differences of each supplier in order quantity,supply capacity,procurement lead time and shortage risk.Thirdly,the above two problems are integrated and a data-driven fr
作者
项寅
Xiang Yin(School of Business,University of Science and Technology of Suzhou,Suzhou 215009,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期210-220,共11页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72104170)
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(21YJC630141)。
关键词
疫情
应急采购
数据驱动
最优停时
epidemic
relief procurement
data-driven
optimal stopping
