摘要
碳交易权是指对企业或机构在一定时间范围内所能排放的温室气体总量的限制,并通过市场机制进行交易和转让,以实现对温室气体排放的有效控制。伴随着碳交易市场的发展和成熟,预测碳交易权价格的准确性对于相关利益相关方具有重要意义。为预测碳交易权价格的未来走势,通过利用历史数据来验证模型的准确性;基于EMD-LSTM方法,进行能源企业碳交易权价格的预测研究。在方法上,通过与RNN、LSTM模型进行对比,EMD-LSTM模型在该预测中更有优势,其R 2数值分别为0.6177、0.9504、0.9552;在处理时间序列数据并进行预测时,EMD-LSTM模型预测准确性更高。
Carbon trading rights refer to the restrictions on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions that enterprises or institutions can emit within a certain time frame and are traded and transferred through market mechanisms to achieve effective control of greenhouse gas emissions.With the development and maturity of the carbon trading market,the accuracy of predicting carbon trading rights prices is of great significance to relevant stakeholders.To predict the future trend of carbon trading rights prices and verify the accuracy of the model using historical data,this paper conducts research on the prediction of carbon trading rights prices for energy enterprises based on the EMD-LSTM method.In terms of methods,compared with RNN and LSTM models,the EMD-LSTM model has more advantages in this prediction,with R 2 values of 0.6177,0.9504,and 0.9552,respectively.When processing time series data and making predictions,the EMD-LSTM model has higher prediction accuracy.
作者
谭旭红
Tan Xuhong(Heilongjiang University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150022,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2024年第1期32-39,共8页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BGL237)。
