摘要
文章依托新熊彼特主义创新理论,梳理了工业革命以来的历次技术革命和技术-经济范式转换。在此基础上,对可再生能源技术可能带来的新技术革命和技术-经济范式转换进行深入分析,并探讨可再生能源产业技术创新的制约因素与应对措施。研究表明:(1)工业革命以来的5次技术-经济范式转换都是新旧技术体系竞争的结果。具备通用性、渗透性和网络性特征的关联技术领域同时出现激进式创新会引发技术革命,形成新的主导技术体系,支撑新一轮经济长周期。(2)新技术体系通常以能源动力技术为核心,涵盖原材料、交通运输、信息通讯等领域;技术-经济范式的转换率先表现为社会生产消费组织模式的深刻变化,并受资源禀赋、经济社会制度和思想文化等因素的影响。(3)可再生能源有望引发新的技术革命,并与关联技术群构成新技术体系。新技术体系已经对社会生产消费组织模式和技术-经济体系产生了重大影响,而资源禀赋、经济制度和社会能力等因素也有利于技术-经济范式的再次转换。(4)在产业层面,推动可再生能源技术创新是技术-经济范式再次转换的关键,需要结合激进式创新的技术属性和能源项目的行业特征,从降低成本和风险的角度采取相应扶持政策。
Based on neo-Schumpeter innovation theory,this paper sorts out previous technological revolutions since the industrial revolution and the transformation of techno-economic paradigm.And it makes a deep analysis of new technological revolution and the transformation of techno-economic paradigm possibly resulting from renewable energy technology and discusses factors restricting technological innovation of renewable energy industries and countermeasures.It arrives at the following conclusions:firstly,five transformations of techno-economic paradigm are the results of the competition between new and old technological systems;in relevant technological fields featured by versatility,permeability and network,the simultaneous occurrence of radical innovation results in technological innovation,forms new dominant technological system and supports the new round of Kondratiev cycle;secondly,new technological system usually takes energy power technology as the core and covers fields such as raw material,transportation,information and communication;the transformation of techno-economic paradigm firstly would be reflected in profound changes in social production and consumption organization patterns,and be affected by factors such as resource endowments,economic and social institutions,and the tradition of ideas and culture;thirdly,renewable energy is expected to incur new technological revolution,and forms a new technological system with relevant technological clusters;the new technological system has had great impacts on social production and consumption organization patterns as well as techno-economic system;and factors such as resource endowments,economic institution,and social capability are beneficial to next transformation of techno-economic paradigm;fourthly,at industrial level,the advancement of technological innovation of renewable energy is the key to next transformation of techno-economic paradigm,and policies should be put forward to reduce costs and risk according to technological attributes of radical innovation
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期16-29,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"科技战略与科技政策研究和评价"
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955801)
中国社会科学院重点课题"新能源产业技术创新研究"
国家社科基金重大项目(12AZD096)
关键词
技术-经济范式
可再生能源
技术革命
技术体系
经济长周期
techno-economic paradigm
renewable energy
technological revolution
technological system
Kondratiev cycle
