摘要
全球经济正在进行周期性转换,从宽松周期走向紧缩周期,全球经济增速放缓,未来世界经济面临高度不确定性。2024年中国经济总体将继续处于修复过程之中,经济运行仍将面临多重困难和挑战。油气行业面临较大的转型压力,中国能源央企在油气与新能源融合发展中创新发展思路,积极探索实践,在安全发展与绿色发展中寻找平衡。2024年国际石油市场不确定性因素明显增强,但紧张的供需基本面或将缓解。交通领域低碳化倒逼油气行业转型,新型炼化一体化将向增强竞争力、绿色化、高端化和智能化方向发展。天然气在新型能源体系中将起到关键支撑作用,中国天然气发展仍处在战略机遇期。“碳中和”情景下中国天然气消费将在2040年前达峰,峰值为6500亿~7300亿立方米,2040年前后中国天然气产量有望达3000亿立方米。
The global economy is undergoing a cyclical transition from an easing cycle to a tightening one,the global economic growth rate is slowing down,and the world economy faces a high uncertainty in the future.In 2024,China's economy in general will continue to be in the process of recovery,and economic operation will still face multiple difficulties and challenges.Oil and gas industry is facing greater pressure from the transition and central energy enterprises are innovating development ideas in the integration of oil and gas and new energy development,actively exploring and practicing to balance between safe development and green development.Uncertainties in the international oil market will increase significantly,but tight supply and demand fundamentals may ease in 2024.The decarbonization in the transportation sector is forcing the industry to transform,and the new refining & chemical integration will develop in the direction of enhancing competitiveness,greening,high-end,and intelligence.China's natural gas consumption under the carbon neutrality scenario will peak at 650 billion to 730 billion cubic meters by 2040,and China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters around 2040.China's natural gas development is still in a period of strategic opportunity,and natural gas will play a key supporting role in the new energy system.
作者
王立敏
戚永颖
石卫
WANG Limin;QI Yongying;SHI Wei(Editorial Department)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2023年第12期9-21,共13页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
新型能源体系建设
中国与世界经济
油气市场
能源转型
安全发展
绿色发展
new energy system construction
China and the world economy
oil and gas markets
energy transition
safe development
green development
