摘要
本文构建并校准了一个包含内生能源与产业结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,研究了中国能源与产业结构的升级过程以及其与碳排放之间的关系。研究发现,能源生产技术的进步通过改变各产业的生产成本推动了产业结构转型,而产业结构转型从能源需求侧减少了高排放化石能源的使用。结果显示,2009~2020年宏观产业结构转型推动了能源结构的转变并显著降低了碳排放量,其累计减少的碳排放量相当于2020年中国年排放量的10%。同时,本文求解了“双碳”目标下最大化居民福利的碳税安排,发现内生税率随经济增长而快速上升,具有显著的发展阶段依赖性。在发展阶段早期实行较低的碳税税率可以维持更高的资本回报率,有利于资本积累、产业升级和经济增长。
In the past decade,China’s industrial structure has been transitioning toward an environmental-friendly direction.Various forms of green energy,such as wind and solar power,have been widely adopted.As a result,China’s GDP growth rate has exceeded the growth rate of energy consumption,which in turn has exceeded the growth rate of CO2 emission.By constructing a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous energy and industrial structure and calibrating it to Chinese data,this study investigates the interaction between energy and industrial upgrading and their relations with CO2 emission.In the theory proposed in this study,the transition of the energy structure is both a driver and an outcome of industrial structural transformation.Technology progress in the green energy sector changes the production costs across different industries,accelerating the upgrade toward a low-carbon industry.Along with changes in industrial structure,economic activities shift the energy demand from manufacturing to the service sector,speeding up the transition to a low-carbon energy structure.Throughout the process of economic growth,energy and industrial structures evolve endogenously and dynamically at different stages,contributing to China’s economic growth.We calibrate the model to match various important moments of the Chinese economy from 2009 to 2020,including GDP growth rate,saving rate,energy structure,industrial structure,and input-output linkage.We derive a first-order approximation to decompose the driving force of industrial structure transformation,energy structure transformation,and the growing CO2 emissions trend.Our work draws three conclusions.First,the transition of industrial structure contributes about 11%of the transition of energy structure.The contribution to each component,which includes coal,oil,and green energy,has reached 11%,23%,and 1%,respectively.Second,the changing price of energy inputs explains about 4%of the transformation process from the manufacturing to the service sector.Thi
作者
江深哲
杜浩锋
徐铭梽
JIANG Shenzhe;DU Haofeng;XU Mingzhi(Institute of New Structural Economics,Peking University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期109-130,共22页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目(72322007)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72003003)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72003005)的资助。
关键词
“双碳”目标
能源结构产业结构碳税发展阶段
Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Goals
Energy Structure
Industrial Structure
Carbon Tax
Development Stage
