摘要
本文在政策分析的基础上,建立VAR-BEKK-GARCH模型进行实证分析。首先,国际玉米价格的波动幅度比中国价格波动幅度大,临储政策取消后,中国价格波动幅度变大。其次,临储期间,中国价格的预期波动可以影响国际价格的波动,而国际价格的随机波动可以影响中国价格的波动。在生产者补贴期间,中国价格的预期波动和随机波动均可影响国际价格的波动。再次,中国价格的影响力在中国市场和进口市场占据主导地位,与国产玉米供给本国市场的数量地位相符。最后,中国玉米进口的不断增加将降低对本国市场价格的主导能力,需重视通过“期货+保险”规避价格风险,并分散玉米进口源,以提高市场主导力。
This article,based on policy analysis,establishes a VAR-BEKK-GARCH model for empirical analysis.Firstly,the volatility of international corn prices is greater than that of domestic prices,and after the cancellation of the temporary storage policy,domestic price volatility increases.Secondly,during the period of temporary storage,the expected volatility of domestic prices can influence the volatility of international prices,while the random volatility of international prices can affect domestic price volatility.During the period of producer subsidies,both the expected and random volatility of domestic prices can influence the volatility of international prices.Furthermore,the influence of domestic prices dominates in both the domestic and import markets,aligning with the quantity position of domestically supplied corn to the domestic market.Lastly,the continuous increase in China’s corn imports will reduce its dominance in the domestic market prices.It is necessary to focus on mitigating price risks through“futures+insurance”and diversifying sources of corn imports to enhance market dominance.
作者
刘凯
穆月英
山崎雅人
小池淳司
Liu Kai;Mu Yueying;Yamazaki Masato;Koike Atsushi(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation,Beijing 100710;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083;Disaster Mitigation Research Center,Nagoya University Nagoya,Japan 4648601;Graduate School of Engineering,Kobe University Kobe,Japan 6578501)
出处
《中国商论》
2024年第1期1-6,共6页
China Journal of Commerce
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国粮食生产的水资源时空匹配及优化路径研究”(18ZDA074)。
