摘要
运用VAR-BEKK-GARCH模型对2019年和2020年新冠疫情爆发前后碳排放权交易价格、碳中和300指数和火电指数之间的联动关系与溢出效应进行对比研究。结果显示:碳市场价格指数是碳中和概念股指和火电股指变动的部分成因,且这种关系在疫情后变得更加明显。投资者的心理因素,如认知错误、框架效应和心理偏差,对资本市场定价起到核心作用。疫情导致的经济波动加剧了这些心理因素的影响。研究指出,新冠疫情虽短期内对中国碳中和进程产生影响,但长远来看,政府的绿色低碳发展战略为可持续发展指明了方向,也促使投资者更加关注绿色低碳行业。此外,本研究还为碳市场和股票市场提供了金融市场政策指引,强调了法律监管的完善和金融衍生工具的引入对于实现碳中和目标的重要性。
This paper used the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to conduct a comparative study on the linkage and spillover effects between the carbon emission trading price,the carbon neutral 300 index and the thermal power index before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019 and 2020.The results showed that the carbon market price index was a partial cause of changes in the carbon neutral concept stock index and thermal power stock index,and this relationship had become more apparent after the epidemic.The psychological factors of investors,such as cognitive errors,framing effects,and psychological biases,played core roles in capital market pricing.The economic fluctuations caused by the epidemic had exacerbated the impact of these psychological factors.The study pointed out that although the COVID-19 had an impact on China s carbon neutrality process in the short term,in the long run,the government s green and low-carbon development strategy pointed out the direction for sustainable development,and also prompted investors to pay more attention to green and low-carbon industries.In addition,this study also provided financial market policy guidance for the carbon and stock markets,emphasizing the importance of improving legal regulation and introducing financial derivatives for achieving carbon neutrality goals.
作者
阮心怡
祁慧博
龙飞
刘畅
RUAN Xin-yi;QI Hui-bo;LONG Fei;LIU Chang(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Zhejiang Rural Revitalization Research Institute,Hangzhou 311300,China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2023年第6期101-110,共10页
China Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(22BGL168)。
