摘要
水利建设投资是重要的基础性投资,对促进经济社会发展具有重要作用。采用实证分析法、以“十二五”“十三五”(2011—2020年)期间为时间序列,依据河南省水利建设投资数据,利用对比分析法、相关性分析法、投入产出法、贡献率分析法等,分析河南省2011—2020年水利建设投资的变化特征和趋势、水利建设投资与经济社会发展之间的相互关系、水利建设与经济发展产出效益的关系、水利建设投入对经济社会发展的贡献率等。结果表明:水利建设投入额与经济社会发展情况高度相关,但水利建设投入额在时间序列上表现出的不稳定性扰动水利行业自身发展的同时,也对经济社会发展产生不利影响;将研究结果数据作为基础数据,采用GM预测模型和ARIMA预测模型拟合预测得到“十四五”期间河南省水利建设投资总规模为2 838.95亿元,水利建设投资对GDP平均贡献率为0.41%,对财政收入平均贡献率为3.70%。同时,对河南省下一阶段水利建设投资优化提出了建议。
Water conservancy construction investment is a crucial foundation for promoting economic and social development.Through empiri-cal analysis of the investment situation in Henan Province during both the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans(2011-2020),this study explores the changes and trends in water conservancy construction investment,its relationship with economic and social development,its impact on output efficiency,and its contribution to overall development.By utilizing comparative analysis,correlation analysis,input-output analysis,and contribution rate analysis,the study illuminated the vital role of water conservancy construction investment in driving sustainable pro-gress.According to renowned scholars,the investment in water conservancy construction is closely tied to both economic and social progress,yielding a highly favorable multiplier effect.Nevertheless,the erratic patterns within this investment over time can severely impede not only the water conservancy industry,but also overall economic and social development.Based on the latest research findings,the GM and ARIMA predictive models are implemented to forecast that the total scale of water conservancy construction investment in Henan Province over the 14th Five-Year Plan will amount to approximately 283.895 billion yuan,with an average contribution rate of 0.41%to GDP growth and 3.70%to fiscal revenue growth.Finally,optimizing water conservancy construction investment in the next stage in Henan Province were pro-posed.
作者
彭直
楚楠
王浩
宋琳月
PENG Zhi;CHU Nan;WANG Hao;SONG Linyue(Information Center of Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,China;School of Civil and Architecture Engineering,Henan University,Kaifeng 475000,China;Henan Institute of Economics and Trade,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第1期151-155,共5页
Yellow River
基金
河南省自然科学基金青年项目(212300410125)
河南省科技攻关项目(232102320028)。
关键词
水利建设投资
经济发展
实证分析
预测
河南省
investment in water conservancy construction
economic development
empirical analysis
prediction
Henan Province
