摘要
地市产业结构及用户类型差异对于电网企业售电量与售电利润有着显著的影响,但现有的相关研究对此却鲜有涉及。为此,本文提出了考虑产业结构及用户类型差异的组合电量预测模型并进行售电收益分析。首先,基于时间序列的差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型得到基础售电量预测结果,并选取最相关的外部因素指标进行线性回归分析;进而,通过分析最相关的外部因素指标对产业结构与用户类型的影响,计算售电量偏差值以修正基础售电量预测结果,并以修正后的结果作为考核售电收益指标的依据;最后,以某省级电网公司各地市售电量数据为例进行算例分析,结果表明本文所提模型能够充分考虑历史售电趋势与外部因素干扰对地市售电量与收益的影响,预测精度进一步提升,可为省级电网对各地市设定精确、合理的利润指标提供参考。
The differences in industrial structure and user types of local municipalities have significant effects on the electricity sales of grid enterprises,but few existing studies have addressed this issue.For this reason,we propose a combined electricity forecasting model that takes into account the differences in industrial structure and user types.Firstly,the basic electricity forecast results are obtained based on time series autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,and the most relevant external factors are selected for linear regression analysis;then,by analyzing the impact of the most relevant external factors on industrial structure and customer type,the deviation of electricity is calculated to correct the basic electricity.Finally,a provincial power grid company's electricity sales data for each municipality is exemplfied.The results show that the model proposed in this paper can fully consider the impact of historical electricity sales trends and external factors on local electricity sales,and has high forecasting accuracy,with an average forecast error of 3.31%.The average prediction error is only 3.31%,which provides a reference for provincial power grids to set accurate and reasonable profit indexes for local municipalities.
作者
张娜
张明慧
满林坤
李正栋
吉星
ZHANG Na;ZHANG Ming-hui;MAN Lin-kun;LI Zheng-dong;JI Xing(State Grid Liaoning Economic Research Institute,Shenyang 110015,China;State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Supply Co.Ltd,Shenyang 110006,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期147-155,共9页
Systems Engineering
关键词
产业结构
用户类型
售电利润
售电量预测
利润贡献度
Industrial Structure
User Types
Profits from Electricity Sales
Forecast of Electricity Sold
Contribution to Profit
