摘要
2021年7月17—22日,河南省发生了一次造成严重人员伤亡和财产损失的极端暴雨事件,被称为“21.7”极端暴雨。在“21.7”极端暴雨发生不到2 a的时间里,“21.7”极端暴雨相关的研究取得了诸多成果,所发表的论文达百篇。文中主要从降水的特征、影响天气系统、发生和发展机制、下垫面效应、气候变暖增幅效应和数值模式预报等方面对“21.7”极端暴雨的研究进展进行了梳理和总结,并与“75.8”特大暴雨的研究成果进行对比。结果表明,由于观测技术的发展和研究方法的改进,“21.7”极端暴雨的研究结果呈现了比“75.8”特大暴雨研究更精细的降水和中小尺度系统特征,尤其是微物理过程,其中中尺度对流系统与中尺度对流涡旋耦合增强的动力学过程,以及霰粒子的融化促进各尺度粒子的同步增长的微物理过程是“21.7”极端暴雨过程的重要发现;“21.7”极端暴雨体现了更明显的热带和海洋的影响,可能导致“21.7”极端暴雨过程出现更极端的小时雨量;然而,城市化对极端暴雨的影响较为复杂,其与气候变暖的信号难以区分,增大了“21.7”极端暴雨机理研究的不确定性。最后,对未来研究方向进行了展望。
From 17 to 22 July 2021,an extremely heavy rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China,causing severe casualties and property damages.This rainstorm is named as"21.7"extreme rainstorm.The"21.7"extreme rainstorm has attracted great attention of many scholars,and significant progress was made with nearly 100 studies of this flood in less than two years.The present study reviews recent research progresses in characteristics of the"21.7"extreme rainstorm,including influencing weather systems and their mechanisms,the effects of underlying surface and climate warming and numerical forecast,etc.These progresses are compared with research progresses of the"75.8"heavy rainstorm.Results indicate that compared with the"75.8"heavy rainstorm,finer characteristics of rainfall and mesoscale and microscale systems in the"21.7"extreme rainstorm have been revealed due to the development of observation technology and the improvement of research methods,particularly in terms of microphysical processes.Among these findings,the dynamic process of coupling enhancement between mesoscale convective system and mesoscale convective vortex and the microphysical process of simultaneous growth of various scale particles promoted by melting of hail particles in the"21.7"extreme rainfall process are important findings.The"21.7"extreme rainstorm was more strongly influenced by tropical and oceanic factors.With global warming,the"21.7"extreme rainstorm showed a more pronounced response to tropical atmospheric circulation and ocean than the"75.8"heavy rainstorm,which may result in more extreme hourly rainfall during the"21.7"extreme rainstorm.However,urban impact on the"21.7"extreme rainstorm is complex.It is challenging to distinguish urban impact from global warming signals,which increases the uncertainty regarding the mechanism of the"21.7"extreme rainstorm.Finally,directions of future research are discussed.
作者
姚秀萍
李若莹
YAO Xiuping;LI Ruoying(China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《气象学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期853-865,共13页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42275013、42030611、42175008)
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-B17)。
