摘要
电信网络诈骗是中国社会治理的一大难题,严重影响社会稳定和群众安全感。本文利用中国裁判文书网数据,运用自然语言处理技术,结合探索性空间数据分析、空间计量模型等实证分析方法,基于犯罪人来源地的视角,分析电信网络诈骗犯罪的空间格局和影响因素。研究发现:①电信网络诈骗犯罪人来源地的地域性特征明显,总体呈现“南多北少、东多西少、中部突起”的空间格局特征。空间溢出效应也存在南北差异,北方以河南为中心,辐射效应不显著;南方以湖南为中心,溢出效应突出,已辐射至周边地区,形成集中连片的犯罪区域。②犯罪人作案的空间选择差异明显,短距离犯罪显著多于中长距离犯罪,省内犯罪占比远高于跨省犯罪。③电信网络诈骗虽然具有非接触性特征,但犯罪分子并非漫天撒网、随机选择被害对象,而是有针对性地实施精准诈骗,犯罪案发的空间集聚性显著。犯罪案件高发区与犯罪人来源地高值区高度重合,沿海发达地市也成为电信网络诈骗案的重灾区。④电信网络诈骗犯罪人来源地的空间格局受工资水平、城镇化率、公共服务水平、城市绿化水平、城市行政等级等综合影响。本研究基于宏观尺度考察电信网络诈骗犯罪的空间格局及空间机理,为犯罪防控提供了实证依据和科学参考。
Telecom-network fraud is a complex and diversified social problem,which is related to people's well-being and social stability.With the data of China judicial documents network,using natural language technology of AI,combined with exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model,this paper systematically and deeply analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of telecom-network fraud in China,based on the perspective of the source of crime.The research showed that:(1)The regional characteristics of the origin of the telecom network fraud are obvious,and the spatial pattern is“More in the north but less in the south,more in the east while less in the west,and more prominent in the middle”.Meanwhile,the spatial spillover effect is different between the south and the north.Hunan is the center of the south,and the spillover effect is outstanding.(2)The spatial choice of criminals is obviously different,the short-distance crime takes precedence over the medium-and long-distance crime,and the proportion of crimes in the province is much higher than that in other provinces.(3)Although telecom-network fraud is characterized by non-contact,but the criminals do not randomly choose the victims,instead they target at special victims.The spatial clustering of the crime occurrence is remarkable.The hot areas of criminal cases and the hot areas where criminals come from are highly overlapping,and the developed coastal cities have also become the hot areas of telecom network fraud.(4)The influencing factors of the spatial pattern of the origin of the telecom network fraud are different.Wage level,urbanization rate,education level,urban environment,urban administrative level have significant impacts on crime,but their mechanisms are different.Based on the macro-scale,this study provides empirical evidence and scientific reference for crime prevention and control.
作者
吴鹤群
王强
郑滋椀
WU Hequn;WANG Qiang;ZHENG Ziwan(Basic courses department,Zhejiang Police College,Hangzhou 310053,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350000,China;School of Big-Data and Network Security,Zhejiang Police College,Hangzhou 310053,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期3219-3234,共16页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41901160、41971159)
浙江省教育厅年度科研项目(Y202147609)
浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY23D010001)。
关键词
犯罪人来源地
电信网络诈骗
空间格局
空间计量模型
the originating place of offender
telecom-network fraud
spatial pattern
spatial econometric model
