摘要
文章利用地面、高低空常规观测资料及ECMWF,GRAPES_GFS,NCEP模式预报资料,对2022年发生在副高边缘环流形势下的两次暴雨天气过程进行对比分析。结果表明:1)两次暴雨过程500 hPa高度场相似,但两次过程的暴雨强度和落区有明显的差异,其主要原因在于副高位置的变化,以及西风带槽脊、低层水汽和切变线位置的差异;2)数值模式对于副高外围的大范围强降水有一定的可预报性,特别是GRAPES_GFS和ECMWF对副高外围稳定性降水的指示性意义比较大,对对流性降水、降水落区的预报比较准确,但对强降水落区的指示意义较差,模式预报量级偏弱。研究的结果可为预报暴雨和检验模式的可靠性提供参考。
Based on the conventional ground and upper-air observation data and numerical prediction model products such as ECMWF,GRAPES_GFS,NCEP,the process of two subtropical high edge rainstorms are compared and analyzed in 2022.The results show that the 500 hPa height fields of the two torrential rain processes are similar,but the intensity and falling area of the two processes are obviously different.The main reason is the change of the position of the subtropical high and the difference of the position of the westerly trough ridge,low-level water vapor and shear line.The numerical model has certain predictability for large-scale heavy precipitation around the subtropical high,especially GRAPES_GFS and ECMWF are of great indicative significance to the stability of precipitation in the periphery of the subtropical high,while for the convective precipitation,the precipitation area is relatively accurate,but the indication of the strong precipitation area is poor,and the magnitude of the model forecast is much weaker.The results of the study can provide reference for forecasting rainstorm and verifying the reliability of the model in the future.
作者
张丹
Zhang Dan(Inner MongoliaUlanqab Meteorological Bureau,Ulanqab 012000)
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2023年第4期82-84,88,共4页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
内蒙古自治区气象局引导性创新基金项目(nmqxydcx202217)资助。
关键词
暴雨
强降水
数值模式
rainstorm
heavy precipitation
numerical model
