摘要
基于中国北方地区269个站点1960-2017年逐日气温观测数据与大气环流指数等,采用线性回归、相关分析、反距离加权法(IDW)及熵权法等方法,探讨了近58年中国北方地区寒潮频次的时空变化特征及影响因素,进而利用研究区耕地面积、人均GDP、农作物播种面积等社会经济统计数据,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力四个方面对中国北方地区寒潮进行风险区划分析。结果表明:近58年来,中国北方地区寒潮频次总体呈0.2次·(10a)-1的速率减少,近58年研究区域共发生了159.7次寒潮,其中冬季和十一月份寒潮频次最多。高频次出现在吉林省靖宇县、安图县,内蒙古阿尔山市、苏尼特左旗、苏尼特右旗,频次高达508次以上,平均每年8.8次,最少寒潮频次出现在华北南部,新疆喀什和阿克苏。不同等级寒潮频次差距较大,一般寒潮频次最多,共102.9次。一般寒潮、较强寒潮、强寒潮、特强寒潮与寒潮频次在空间分布上比较相似,大体呈由南向北增加的分布规律,东北地区是寒潮的活跃区,华北地区的活跃区在内蒙古中部,西北地区寒潮活跃区主要在新疆阿勒泰地区。年尺度而言,中国北方地区寒潮主要受CA、APVII、AO和APVAI的影响,各季节影响因子有所差异,春季寒潮主要受CQ和CA的影响,秋季寒潮与APVII、CA、AO关系显著,冬季寒潮与APVII、CA、AO、SHI均达到显著相关关系。综合风险区划结果表明,新疆阿勒泰地区、黑龙江大兴安岭地区、吉林省东南部以及山东省为寒潮发生的高风险区,低风险区分布在新疆阿克苏和喀什地区,与寒潮频次空间分布相吻合。
Based on the observation data of daily temperature of269 sites and atmospheric circulation index in northern China from1960 to2017,linear regression,correlation analysis,inverse distance interpolation(IDW)and entropy weight method are used to,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cold wave frequency in northern China in the last58 years and its causes were discussed,and then using the socio-economic statistics such as cultivated land area,per capita GDP and sown area of crops in the study area,the risk regionalization of cold wave in northern China was evaluated and analyzed from four aspects,including risk factors,environmental sensitivity,carrier vulnerability,disaster prevention and reduction ability. The results show that in the last58 years,the frequency of cold wave in northern China decreased0.20 times per10 years,a total of159.7 cold tides occurred in the last58 years,of which the frequency of cold wave in winter and November was the most,and the maximum frequency appears in Jingyu County,Antu County of Jilin Province,Aershan City,Sonid Left Banner,Sonid Right Banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region,frequency up to508 times,an average of8.8 times a year,the minimum frequency of cold waves occurred in the south of north China,Kashi and Akesu City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region. There is a big difference in the frequency of cold wave in different grades,the general cold wave frequency is the most,total102.9 times,the general cold wave,the stronger cold wave,the strong cold wave and extra-heavy cold wave is similar to the cold wave frequency in spatial distribution,and generally shows the distribution law of increasing from south to north. The northeast region is the active region of cold wave,the northwest active region of cold wave is mainly in Aletai of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region,the North China active region is in central Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. On annual scale,the cold wave in northern China was dominated by CA,APVII,AO and APVAI,while the influence factors among
作者
乔雪梅
刘普幸
QIAO Xuemei;LIU Puxing(College of Geography and Environmenkil Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期357-367,共11页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41561080)资助。
关键词
寒潮频次
时空特征
影响因素
风险区划
中国北方
cold wave frequency
temporal and spatial characteristics
influencing factor
risk division
northern China
