摘要
全球利率正在发生新的变化,短期的利率上升有逐渐向中长端利率蔓延的趋势,目前各国中央银行和市场对利率的看法逐渐从以往的低利率转向高利率的长期化。由于全球经济互联模式受到经济和非经济因素的多重影响,政策利率阻止通货膨胀(以下简称通胀)上升的作用有所减弱,影响通胀的变量增加,导致中央银行以利率为预期管理工具调控宏观经济的难度加大。本文提出,预判利率短期变化和中长期变化不但应考察各国经济实际状况,还应关注影响利率、通胀、经济增速的中长期因素,例如全要素生产率、人口老龄化、投资和储蓄结构变化等,这些新的变量对实际利率的影响加深,同时意味着利率政策工具的运用难度加大。本文认为,利率长期走高将对经济增长带来负面影响,而且不符合债务经济的现实约束,由于长期利率中枢的走势受到短期因素和长期变量的共同影响,政策利率传导如果受阻或迟滞,将给货币政策调整带来新的不确定性。当前乃至今后一段时间,考虑到利率高位运行对经济增长和金融稳定形成制约,全球主要中央银行须重新思考货币政策框架,提高通胀容忍度,并考虑推动利率稳步下行,回归货币政策正常化。同时,面对利率范式转换,商业银行应注重防范利率政策风险,既要保持合理稳定净息差水平,也要增强价值创造能力。
Global interest rates are undergoing a new change,with the rise in short-term interest rates trending to‐wards a gradual spread to medium-and long-term interest rates,and the current view of central banks and markets on interest rates is gradually shifting from previously low interest rates to higher interest rates over the long term.As the pattern of global economic interconnection is affected by multiple economic and non-economic factors,the role of poli‐cy interest rates in stopping inflation from rising has weakened,and the number of variables affecting inflation has in‐creased,making it more difficult for central banks to use interest rates as an anticipatory management tool to regulate the macro-economy.This paper proposes that in predicting the short and medium term changes in interest rates,we should not only examine the actual economic conditions of various countries,but also pay attention to the medium and long term factors affecting interest rates,inflation and economic growth,such as total factor productivity,population aging,investment and savings structure changes,etc.These new variables have a deeper impact on the real interest rate,and at the same time mean that the application of interest rate policy tools is more difficult.This paper argues that a prolonged period of higher interest rates will have a negative impact on economic growth and is inconsistent with the realities of the debt economy constraints,as the trend of the long-term interest rate pivot is affected by a combination of short-term factors and long-term variables,and that policy interest rate transmission,if impeded or delayed,will bring new uncertainties to the adjustment of monetary policy.At present and in the coming period,given the constraints on economic growth and financial stability posed by high interest rates,the major central banks around the world need to rethink their monetary policy frameworks,increase inflation tolerance and consider pushing interest rates steadily downward to return to the normalization of mon
作者
邓宇
Deng Yu(Shanghai Institution for Finance and Development,Shanghai 200011,China)
出处
《金融发展研究》
北大核心
2023年第11期3-10,共8页
Journal Of Financial Development Research
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国地方政府债务与金融稳定性研究”(20&ZD082)。
关键词
通货膨胀
利率
货币政策
商业银行
金融风险
inflation
interest rate
monetary policy
commercial banks
financial risk
