摘要
基于山东省烟台、威海、青岛、临沂和滨州地区386份有效调查问卷数据,运用多元回归模型分析生产成本、社会经济、政策环境、市场因素对苹果效益的影响,结果显示:(1)核心解释变量中,种苗投入(X5)负向影响苹果生产效益,化肥农药投入(X_(1))、劳动力投入(X_(2))、土地面积投入(X_(3))、机械投入(X_(4))、将销售渠道(X_(6))和价格变动程度(X_(7))显著正向影响苹果生产效益,即化肥农药每增加1(劳动力投入每增加1、土地面积投入每增加1、机械投入每增加1),苹果生产效益增加0.286(0.256、0.330、0.079);销售渠道每增加1(价格每提高1),苹果生产效益增加0.357(0.257)。(2)控制变量中,是否外出打工(X_(12))负向影响苹果生产效益,文化程度(X_(11))和从业年限(X_(13))在0.1水平上显著正向影响苹果生产效益,即文化程度越高、从业年限越长,越利于提高苹果生产效益。提出相关部门要积极推行绿色有机种植技术,拓展销售渠道,构建稳定市场价格机制;合作社、小农户要积极学习新技术、新理念,适度扩大规模的对策建议。
Based on 386 valid survey questionnaire data from Yantai,Weihai,Qingdao,Linyi,and Binzhou in Shandong Province,a multiple regression model was used to analyze the effects of production costs,social conomy,policy environment,and market on apple benefits.The results showed that:(1)Among the core explanatory variables,seedling input(X5)had a negative impact on apple production efficiency,while fertilizer and pesticide input(X_(1)),labor input(X_(2)),land area input(X_(3)),machinery input(X_(4)),sales channels(X_(6)),and degree of price change(X_(7))had a significant positive impact on apple production efficiency.For every 1 increase in fertilizer and pesticide(1 increase in labor input,1 increase in land area input,and 1 increase in machinery input),the apple production efficiency increased by 0.286(0.256,0.330,0.079).For every 1 increase in sales channels(1 increase in price),the production efficiency of apples increases 0.357(0.257).(2)In the control variable,whether to work outside(X_(12))had a negative impact on apple production efficiency,while education level(X_(11))and years of employment(X_(13))had a significant positive impact on apple production efficiency at the 0.1 level.That was,higher education level and longer years of employment were more conducive to improving apple production efficiency.The countermeasures and suggestions were proposed that the relevant departments should actively promote green organic planting technology,expand sales channels,and establish a stable market price mechanism,and the cooperatives and small farmers should actively learn new technologies and concepts,and moderately expand their scale.
作者
梁岩岩
孟子恒
刘学忠
LIANG Yan-yan;MENG Zi-heng;LIU Xue-zhong(Shizhong District Agricultural and Rural Affairs Service Center of Zaozhuang,Zaozhuang 277100,China;College of Economics and Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)
出处
《河北农业科学》
2023年第5期95-98,共4页
Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences
基金
山东省社会科学规划重大理论与现实问题协同创新研究专项“新旧动能转换背景下山东省水果产业供给侧改革研究”(19CCXJ13)。
关键词
山东省
苹果
生产效益
多元回归模型
Shandong Province
Apple
Production efficiency
Multiple regression model
