摘要
推进农村养老事业发展是乡村振兴战略的基础环节,随着中国社会主要矛盾的转变,传统农村养老需求的识别方式已无法满足社会治理精细化理念的要求。基于农村居民有效需求的时空差异,从消费实现角度提出农村居民养老需求精准识别的理论分析框架,通过时空地理加权回归与结构方程进行实证检验。结果显示:农村养老需求总体呈扩张态势,部分需求之间存在显著替代效应;东部地区农村养老需求扩张程度最为明显,需求之间能够相互促进;中部地区农村养老需求扩张态势略低,部分需求之间也存在促进作用,但单位价值量较高的需求类型不能够被直接识别,扩张能力有限;西部地区农村养老需求未形成明显的扩张趋势,维持基本生存的食品需求与其它需求存在显著的替代效应,且农村养老需求的扩张严重依赖于医疗需求的有效实现。基于这样一种精准识别,政府应履行主体职责,精准施策,提高农村养老保障水平,满足农村养老需求。
Promoting the development of rural endowment undertakings is the basic link of the rural revitalization strategy.With the transformation of the main social contradictions in China,the traditional identification method of rural aged-supporting demands has been unable to meet the requirements of the refined concept of social governance.Based on the temporal and spatial differences of the effective rural aged-supporting demands,a theoretical analysis framework for accurate identification of the rural aged-supporting demands is proposed from the perspective of consumption realization,and the empirical test is conducted via Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression and Structural Equation.Results are as follows:The rural aged-supporting demands are generally expanding,and there is a significant substitution effect among some needs;The expansion of rural elderly care demand is the most obvious in the eastern region,and the demand can promote each other;The expansion trend of rural aged-supporting demands are slightly low in Central China,and there is also a promoting effect among some demands,but the demand types with high unit value cannot be directly identified,and the expansion capacity is limited;The rural aged-supporting demands have not formed an obvious expansion trend in Western China,there is a significant substitution effect between the demand for food to maintain basic survival and other needs,and the expansion of rural aged-supporting demands seriously depends on the effective realization of medical demand.Based on accurate identification,the government should perform its main responsibilities,implement precise policies,improve the level of rural pension security,and meet rural aged-supporting demands.
作者
高秉龙
金秋实
Gao Bing-long;Jin Qiu-shi
出处
《青海民族大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2023年第3期94-106,共13页
Journal of Qinghai Minzu University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“西部民族地区典型牧区治理有效综合调查研究”(项目编号:18AZD020)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
农村养老
养老需求
消费结构
需求替代
Rural Elderly Care
Aged-Supporting Demands
Consumption Structure
Demand Substitution
