摘要
基于2013—2018年的县域面板数据,通过PSM-DID模型考察在价格支持政策市场化改革背景下,生产者补贴政策实施对大豆生产面积的影响,并对时间异质性、区域差异以及具体的影响机制进行甄别。结果表明:(1)大豆生产补贴政策实施使大豆面积平均增加了11%左右,且政策实施地区大豆生产面积均有不同程度的增长;(2)大豆生产补贴政策实施对大豆“扩面”作用存在“补贴-效用”偏差的问题,即虽然2018年补贴额度较2017年显著提升,但2018年(9.76%)的“扩面”作用却不如2017年(12.71%);(3)除内蒙古自治区外,其他三个地区均存在“扩面”程度未能与补贴额度同比例上升的问题,更为甚者,政策改革对2018年吉林省大豆的“扩面”作用竟为负向;(4)政策改革能够显著提升大豆生产面积的原因在于种植收益的显著提高,而政策效果未能与补贴额度同比例增长的原因在于地租的同步增长。研究为生产者补贴政策可以促进大豆面积提升提供经验性证据,也为在农业供给侧结构性改革和大豆振兴压力下如何持续改善大豆生产状况提供政策启示。
Based on the intra-county panel data from 2013 to 2018,this paper uses the PSM-DID model to in-vestigate the impact of producer subsidy policy implementation on soybean production area under the background of market-oriented price support policy reform,and screens the temporal heterogeneity,regional differences and spe-cific influencing mechanisms.The results showed that:(1)The soybean production area increased by about 11%on average after the implementation of soybean production subsidy policy,and the soybean production area increased to different degrees in the regions where the policy was implemented;(2)the effect of soybean production subsidy policy implementation on soybean“expansion”has the problem of“subsidy–utility”deviation,that is,al-though the amount of subsidy in 2018 is significantly higher than that in 2017,the effect of the“expansion”in 2018(9.76%)is not as good as that in 2017(12.71%);(3)except Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,the other three regions all had the problem that the extent of the“expansion”did not increase in the same proportion as the subsidy amount,and moreover,the policy reform had a negative effect on the soybean“expansion”of Jilin Prov-ince in 2018;and(4)The reason why the policy reform can significantly improve the soybean production area is the significant increase of planting income,while the reason why the policy effect failed to increase in the same propor-tion as the subsidy amount is the synchronous increase of land rent.Therefore,this study provides empirical evi-dence that producer subsidy policy can promote the increase of soybean area,and also policy inspiration for how to continuously improve the soybean production under the pressure of agricultural supply-side structural reform and soybean revitalization.
作者
周杨
邢仕宏
李欣怡
焦妍
ZHOU Yang;XING Shihong;LI Xinyi;JIAO Yan(College of Confucian Business,Jining University,Jining 273115,China)
出处
《经济论坛》
2023年第11期102-114,共13页
Economic Forum
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“国家玉米收储政策改革效应及其优化研究”(18BJY150)
济宁学院国家级大学生创新创业计划项目“疫情影响下高校线上教学质量评价分析——基于济宁学院教学评估数据的准自然实验”(S202210454012)
济宁市社会科学基金项目“济宁市县域乡村振兴战略实施路径研究”(23JSGX116)。
