摘要
玉米是重要的粮经饲作物,玉米价格对稳定农产品市场价格具有重要作用。本文利用VAR-BEKK-MGARCH模型,基于2008年1月至2022年6月玉米期现货价格周度数据,分别从均值溢出和波动溢出两个层面,分析价格支持政策改革对玉米期现货价格之间溢出效应的影响。研究发现:玉米期现货价格之间的溢出效应受价格支持政策改革的显著影响,在不同政策期表现出明显差异。临时收储政策期表现为现货价格对期货价格的单向溢出,“市场化收购+生产者补贴”政策期表现为期货价格和现货价格之间的双向溢出,期货价格对现货价格的溢出幅度增加。基于以上结论,应优化价格支持政策、扩大农业保险的应用、完善价格监测预警机制。
Corn is an important grain,economic and feed crop.Corn price plays a very important role in stabilizing the market price of agricultural products.Based on the weekly data of corn futures and spot price from January 2008 to June 2022,this paper applies the VAR-BEKK-MGARCH model to analyze the impact of price support policy reform on the mean and volatility spillover effect between corn futures price and spot price.The results reveal that the spillover effect between corn futures price and spot price is significantly affected by the reform of price support policy and shows obvious differences in different policy periods.There was a one-way spillover effect of spot price to futures price during the temporary storage policy period and a two-way spillover effect of spot price and future price during the“market-based purchase+producer subsidy”period with the spillover effect of futures price to spot price increased.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested to optimize price support policy,expand the application of agricultural insurance,and improve the price monitoring and early warning system to cope with the risk of corn market.
作者
王佳越
张玲
王建忠
WANG Jiayue;ZHANG Ling;WANG Jianzhong
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2023年第4期157-160,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20210101042)
河北省现代农业产业技术体系“玉米产业经济”项目(HBCT2018020301)
教育部人文社科青年基金“突发事件对猪肉价格的影响及波动传导机制研究”项目(20YJC790095)
