摘要
作为欧亚地区最具代表性的军事联盟,集体安全条约组织对成员国安全危机态度差异明显。对于2022年1月爆发的哈萨克斯坦骚乱,集安组织第一时间响应哈国总统请求且迅速介入。但面对2020年以来亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间因纳卡争端引发的冲突,集安组织却“保持缄默”,对亚美尼亚的多次干预请求置之不理。为解释集安组织为何选择性介入域内危机,本文构建了一个以威胁感知和成本预期为自变量的分析框架:威胁感知高且成本预期低,则集安组织更倾向于介入该事件;威胁感知高且成本预期高,则集安组织更倾向于有限介入;威胁感知低且成本预期高,则集安组织倾向于不介入;威胁感知低且成本预期低,则集安组织将无所作为。通过分析发现,集安组织之所以选择介入哈国骚乱,是由于威胁感知较高且成本预期较低,而不介入纳卡冲突,是由于威胁感知较低且成本预期较高。从组织前景来看,集安组织对亚美尼亚的漠视使得该国已不断远离这一以俄罗斯为核心的安全组织。同时,由于俄乌冲突的爆发,组织中的哈吉塔三国均出现了离心倾向。在可见的未来,集安组织的内部凝聚力和行动力有可能会下降。
As a most representative military alliance in Eurasia,the Central Security Treaty Organization’s(CSTO)attitudes towards security crises in its member states vary significantly.In the case of Kazakhstan riots that broke out in January 2022,the CSTO responded promptly at the request of President of Kazakhstan through swift intervention.But when it came to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 2020 onwards,the CSTO has done nothing and ignored Armenia’s repeated requests.In order to explain why the CSTO selectively intervenes in regional crises,this paper constructs an analytical framework using threat perceptions and expected costs as independent variables:If threat perception is high and expected costs are low,the CSTO is more likely to intervene;if both threat perception and expected costs are high,the CSTO is likely to intervene to a limited extent;if threat perception is low and expected costs are high,the CSTO is less likely to intervene;and if both threat perception and cost expectation are low,the CSTO will do nothing.The analysis reveals that the CSTO chose to intervene in Kazakhstan riots due to high threat perception and low expected costs,while it did not intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict due to low threat perception and high expected costs.In terms of the CSTO’s prospects,its indifference has led Armenia to gradually distance itself from this Russia-centered security organization.At the same time,due to the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict,three member states Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan all showed a centrifugal tendency.In the foreseeable future,the CSTO’s cohesion and ability to act may be undermined.
作者
曾向红
王子寒
Zeng Xianghong;Wang Zihan
出处
《国际论坛》
北大核心
2023年第6期107-131,159,160,共27页
International Forum
基金
国家社会科学基金重大研究专项项目(项目批准号:21VGQ010)的阶段性成果
2023年度兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金重点研究基地项目“中亚地区形势变化与‘一带一路’建设”(项目批准号:2023jbkyjd003)与2023年度兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费定向探索项目—优秀研究生创新项目“乌克兰危机以来哈乌大国外交政策的异同及其根源”(项目批准号:2023lzujbkyxs027)的资助。
