摘要
科学认识经济增长和旅游发展关系是实现旅游业高质量发展以及提升人民福祉的重要举措。以旅游发展促进经济增长假说为理论基础,从异速增长关系视阈出发,构建2000—2019年长三角区域经济-旅游规模异速增长关系模型,探究二者的时空演变特征并识别异速增长关系的时空变化过程,最后借助随机森林回归算法评估异速增长的影响因素重要性及各因素的非线性效应。结果表明:①长三角区域经济水平与旅游规模存在较为相似的时空格局,表现为“东高西低”的空间分布特征,其中区域经济水平和旅游总收入的时空分布特征具有较强稳定性,旅游总人次空间特征的稳定性较差。②长三角区域经济-旅游规模的纵向异速关系历经区域经济扩张弱型—经济旅游基本协调型—旅游规模扩张弱型的变化过程;横向异速等级主要表现为正异速等级,多数城市旅游规模增速高于区域经济增速,发生等级跃迁变动的城市多数属于上升型,表明旅游业在经济发展中的增速显著。③长三角区域经济-旅游规模的异速增长关系受到多种因素的共同作用,其中旅游消费水平、旅游资源丰度、文化供给水平、地方信息化水平、人力资源投入、对外开放程度是核心影响因子,各因子表现出较为相似的非线性影响趋势,多数因子波动后达到稳定阶段。从增速视角审视区域经济与旅游业发展,有利于全方位认识经济-旅游系统的内部逻辑和发展差异,是有效发挥旅游业在新发展阶段、新发展理念和新发展格局中功能和作用的关键内容。
The scientific understanding of the relationship between economic growth and tourism development is the important initiative in achieving quality tourism development as well as enhancing people's well-being.Based on the tourism-led growth hypothesis,the allometric growth model between regional economy and tourism scale from 2000 to 2019 is constructed from the perspective of the allometric growth relationship in the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD).We explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional economy and tourism scale and identify the spatial and temporal change process of the allometric growth relationship between regional economy and tourism scale.The results show that:(1)The spatial and temporal patterns of regional economy and tourism scale are relatively similar in the YRD.There are the spatial distribution characteristics of"high in the east and low in the west".The spatial and temporal patterns of regional economy and total tourism revenue are more stable,while the spatial characteristics of total tourism arrivals are less stable.(2)The vertical allometric growth relationship between regional economy and tourism scale undergoes the process from weak regional economy expansion to economy and tourism coordination to weak tourism scale expansion in the YRD.The horizontal allometric growth relationship is mainly manifested as positive allometric growth.The growth rate of tourism is higher than that of the regional economy in most cities.The majority of cities that show a change in ranking are upwards,indicating that tourism is growing significantly in the economic development.(3)The allometric growth relationship between regional economy and tourism scale is influenced by the combination of various factors in YRD.The tourism consumption level,the tourism resources abundance,the cultural supply level,the local informatization level,the human resource input,and the openness to the outside world are the core influencing factors.Each factor has the relatively similar nonlinear influence
作者
马小宾
章锦河
周乐莹
孙怡
杨良健
郭丽佳
王培家
MAXiaobin;ZHANG Jinhe;ZHOU Leying;SUN Yi;YANG Liangjian;GUO Lijia;WANG Peijia(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Huangshan National Park Ecosystem Observation and Research Station,Ministry of Education,Huangshan 245899,Anhui,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810016,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期2984-3002,共19页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42271251、42101218)。
关键词
区域经济
旅游规模
异速增长
随机森林回归
非线性效应
长三角地区
regional economy
tourism scale
allometric growth
random forest regression
nonlinear effects
Yangtze River Delta region
