摘要
城市群的形成发育过程中,存在城市间国际贸易的“竞合博弈”现象,具体表现为城市群国际贸易增长呈爬升形态。论文为探究中国城市群国际贸易增长的时空演化及发展规律,首先通过对城市群国际贸易增长爬升规律进行基本原理分析并构建数理模型得出城市群国际贸易增长的几何表达式,其次运用CRITIC综合赋权法计算得出2010—2019年城市群整体及内部各城市的国际贸易增长综合水平,构建了城市群国际贸易的竞合强度和门槛模型,最后通过卡方拟合优度检验对中国城市群国际贸易增长爬升规律进行拟合验证。结果表明:(1)中国城市群内各城市国际贸易增长的变化过程遵循爬升规律,国际贸易增长具有空间上的不均衡性,城市群整体的国际贸易增长区位特征主要表现为“东南高、西北低”的形态。(2)中国城市群内各城市国际贸易发展存在竞合门槛的限制,不同城市群的竞合强度突破竞合门槛的时间存在差异,国家级城市群在国际贸易发展中的竞争优势更为明显,而区域级和地区级城市群在国际贸易发展中的竞争力相对较弱。(3)中国城市群国际贸易增长爬升曲线得到了实践验证,各城市群间的拟合曲线相似性较大,拟合效果良好,城市群国际贸易增长变化规律与爬升函数模型基本一致。国际贸易增长发展规律的研究可为促进中国城市群国际贸易发展及区域贸易提供理论支撑和决策参考。
In the process of urban agglomeration formation and development,there exists a phenomenon of"competitive cooperation"in international trade among cities,specifically manifested as an ascending pattern of international trade growth in urban agglomerations.This study explored the spatiotemporal evolution and development patterns of international trade growth in Chinese urban agglomerations.First,through a fundamental analysis of the ascending growth pattern of international trade in urban agglomerations and the construction of a mathematical model,a geometric expression for international trade growth in urban agglomerations was derived.Second,the CRITIC comprehensive weighting method was employed to calculate the overall and individual international trade growth levels of urban agglomerations and their constituent cities from 2010 to 2019.A model for the competitiveness intensity and threshold of international trade in urban agglomerations was developed.Finally,the chi-square goodness-of-fit test was conducted to validate the ascending growth pattern of international trade in Chinese urban agglomerations.The results indicate that:1)The process of international trade growth in individual cities within Chinese urban agglomerations followed an ascending pattern,and the growth demonstrated a spatial imbalance.The locational characteristics of international trade growth in urban agglomerations were primarily characterized by a"high in the southeast and low in the northwest"pattern.2)There were competitiveness threshold restrictions on the development of international trade in different urban agglomerations,with varying times for the competitiveness intensity to exceed the competitiveness threshold.National-level urban agglomerations exhibited more pronounced competitive advantages in international trade development,while regional-level and local-level urban agglomerations displayed relatively weaker competitiveness.3)The ascending curve of international trade growth in Chinese urban agglomerations was validated through
作者
曾鹏
程寅
ZENG Peng;CHENG Yin(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China;School of Economics,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期2006-2018,共13页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD157)。
关键词
城市群
国际贸易增长
爬升规律
竞合门槛
模拟验证
urban agglomeration
international trade growth
climbing pattern
competitiveness threshold
simulation verification
