摘要
径流量的变化受到人类活动、降水量和气温变化的影响,对引起径流量变化的影响因素进行分析可以为流域水资源管理提供参考。以沁河流域为研究对象,采用M-K检验法、累积距平法、Morlet小波分析等方法分析沁河流域径流量和降水量的变化特征,采用累积量斜率变化率比较法和双累积曲线法探究人类活动、降水量和气温变化对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:1)1951—2019年武陟站径流量呈减小趋势,减小速度为2.019亿m^(3)/10 a,径流量在1971年发生突变;径流量变化主周期为10~15 a。2)1961—2014年降水量呈减小趋势,减小速度为16.0 mm/10 a,降水量在1971年发生突变;降水量变化主周期为14~18 a。3)人类活动、降水量和气温变化对径流量变化的贡献率分别为85.17%、14.35%和0.48%。
The change of runoff is affected by human activities,precipitation and temperature.The analysis of the influencing factors causing the change of runoff can provide reference for watershed water resources management.Taking Qinhe River basin as the research object,the variation characteristics of runoff and precipitation in Qinhe River basin were analyzed by means of Mann-Kendall method,cumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet;The contribution rate of precipitation change and human activities to runoff change was explored by using the comparison method of cumulative slope change rate and double cumulative curve method.The results show that a)in recent 70 years,the runoff at Wuzhi Station has been decreased by 2.019×10^(8)m^(3)/10 a and the runoff suddenly changed in 1971.The main cycle of runoff change is 10-15 years.b)In recent 53 years,the precipitation shows a decreasing trend,with a decreasing range of 16.0 mm/10 a.The precipitation mutates in 1971 and the main cycle of precipitation change is 14-18 years.c)The contribution rates of human activities,precipitation and temperature changes to runoff changes are 85.17%,14.35%and 0.48%respectively.
作者
张廷奎
李军华
张向萍
石文洁
ZHANG Tingkui;LI Junhua;ZHANG Xiangping;SHI Wenjie(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation,MWR,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第11期49-54,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42041006,U2243222,U2243219)
河南省自然科学基金资助项目(212300410372,222300420013)
河南省软科学研究计划项目(222400410347)
河南省社会科学规划专题项目(2021ZT10)。
关键词
径流量
人类活动
降水量
气温
沁河流域
runoff
human activity
precipitation
temperature
Qinhe River Basin
