摘要
为了明确丹江源径流量变化的主要影响因素,利用Budyko假设的弹性系数法分析了丹江源1974—2020年降水量和径流量要素的变化趋势,对影响径流量变化要素的贡献进行了定量评估。结果显示,丹江源区降水量呈微弱增加趋势,潜在蒸散发量与径流量呈下降趋势,其中潜在蒸散发量下降趋势显著(P<0.05)。以突变年份1989年将研究期划分为基准期(1974—1988年)和变化期(1989—2020年),基准期和变化期降水量、潜在蒸散发量、下垫面参数的弹性系数平均值分别为1.93、-0.93、-1.37和2.43、-1.43、-1.26,丹江源区径流量对降水量最为敏感。1974—1988年基准期内,潜在蒸散发量对径流量变化的贡献率为54.76%,1989—2020年潜在蒸散发量贡献率增加为68.54%,潜在蒸散发量为丹江源区径流量变化的主要影响因素,且影响程度在增加,而下垫面对径流量的影响最小。
In order to clarify the main influencing factors of headwater runoff change of the Danjiang River,the variation trend of precipitation and runoff in the source region of Danjiang River from 1974 to 2020 was analyzed by using the elastic coefficient method of Budyko hypothesis,and the contribution of factors affecting runoff change was quantitatively evaluated.The results showed that the rainfall increased in the source region of Danjiang River,while evaporation and runoff decreased,and the evapotranspiration decreased significantly(P<0.05).The study period was divided into the benchmark period and variable period by the mutation year 1989.The average elastic coefficient of precipitation,potential evaporation and underlying surface parameters for the benchmark and variable period were 1.93,-0.93,-1.37,and 2.43,-1.43,-1.26,respectively.The runoff of the source region of Danjiang River was the most sensitive to precipitation.The contribution rate of potential evapotranspiration was 54.76%from 1974 to 1988,and was enlarged to 68.54%from 1989 to 2020.Evapotranspiration was the main factor affecting the runoff change of the source region of Danjiang River in recent years,and the degree of influence was increasing,while the underlying surface had the smallest impact on runoff.
作者
赵培
马晨曦
赵世发
王喆
ZHAO Pei;MA Chen-xi;ZHAO Shi-fa;WANG Zhe(Department of Geography,Shangluo University/Ecohydrology Observation and Research Station of the Southern Qinling Mountains,Shangluo 726000,Shaanxi,China;Shangluo Meteorological Bureau,Shangluo 726000,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2023年第9期20-24,共5页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
南水北调中线水源地生态环境技术研究创新团队项目(SK2017-44)
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202111396013)。
关键词
气候变化
Budyko假设
径流量变化
丹江源
秦岭
climate change
Budyko hypothesis
runoff change
source region of Danjiang River
Qinling Mountains
