摘要
文章选取了2006—2021年间代表性较强的18个新兴市场国家进口贸易相关数据,通过构建时变随机前沿引力(SFA)模型和进口贸易非效率模型,实证分析了中国从新兴市场国家的进口贸易效率、潜力及影响因素。同时,考虑到进口贸易效率自身在不同国家之间存在着较大的异质性,故而在控制个体与时间固定效应基础上对时变SFA模型进行了进一步的估计,其结果保持一致。结果显示,双方经济规模、本国人口数量、地理距离和共同语言对中国自新兴市场国家的进口贸易都有着显著影响,贸易非效率项仍是制约中国自其进口贸易的关键因素,而进口贸易效率主要由关税水平、班轮运输指数、经济自由度所决定。未来,中国需要进一步加强与新兴市场国家的贸易运输基础设施建设,优化进口商品结构,降低关税与非关税壁垒,以提高从新兴市场国家的进口贸易效率。
This paper selects import trade data of 18 representative emerging market countries from 2006 to 2021,and empirically analyzes the efficiency,potential and influencing factors of China's import trade from emer-ging market countries by constructing time-varying stochastic frontier gravity(SFA)model and import trade ineffi-ciency model.At the same time,considering the large heterogeneity of import trade efficiency among different countries,the time-varying SFA model is further estimated on the basis of controlling individual and time-fixed effects,and the results are consistent.The results show that the economic scale,population size,geographical dis-tance and common language of both sides have a significant impact on China's import trade from emerging market countries.Trade inefficiency is still the key factor restricting China's import trade from other countries,and import trade efficiency is mainly determined by tariff level,liner transport index and economic freedom.In the future,China needs to further strengthen the construction of trade and transportation infrastructure with emerging market countries,optimize the structure of imported goods,and reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to improve the effi-ciency of import trade from emerging market countries.
作者
顾学明
任珊珊
GU Xueming;REN Shanshan(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation;University of International Business and Economics)
出处
《国际贸易》
北大核心
2023年第10期3-15,共13页
Intertrade
关键词
新兴市场国家
进口贸易潜力
时变随机前沿引力模型
贸易效率
emerging market countries
import trade potential
time-varying stochastic frontier gravity mod-el
trade efficiency
