摘要
为了提高光伏发电功率预测精度,减少光伏发电功率预测误差,提出考虑多因素影响的光伏发电功率智能预测方法。首先分析光伏发电功率预测研究进展,选择光伏发电功率影响因素,并采用相关性分析法确定影响因素权重值,然后根据权重值对光伏发电功率样本数据进行处理,采用最小二乘支持向量机对样本进行学习,建立光伏发电功率预测模型,最后采用Matlab工具箱进行光伏发电功率预测的仿真对照测试,结果表明,所提方法可以科学、准确描述光伏发电功率变化趋势,光伏发电功率预测精度高于当前经典方法,是一种性能优异的光伏发电功率预测建模技术。
In order to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction and reduce the error of photovoltaic power prediction,an intelligent photovoltaic power prediction method considering the influence of multiple factors is designed.Firstly,the research progress of photovoltaic power prediction is analyzed,the influencing factors of photovoltaic power are selected,and the weight value of influencing factors is determined by factor analysis method.Then,the sample data of photovoltaic power is processed according to the weight value,and the samples are learned by least squares support vector machine to establish the photovoltaic power prediction model,Finally,the simulation and control test of photovoltaic power prediction is carried out by using Matlab toolbox.The results show that this method can scientifically and accurately describe the change trend of photovoltaic power,and the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power is higher than that of the current classical methods.It is an excellent photovoltaic power prediction modeling technology.
作者
许国泽
XU Guo-ze(Huaneng Jinchang Photovoltaic Power Co.,Ltd.,Jinchang 730030 China)
出处
《自动化技术与应用》
2023年第10期162-166,共5页
Techniques of Automation and Applications
关键词
光伏发电
影响因素
功率预测
仿真测试
预测精度
photovoltaic power generation
influencing factors
power prediction
simulation test
prediction accuracy
