摘要
人口变动是影响乡村发展的重要因素之一,它不仅影响乡村的人口结构、社会结构和文化结构,也影响乡村居民的消费行为和消费水平。乡村居民消费潜力是衡量乡村经济发展水平和生活质量的重要指标,也是促进乡村产业结构调整和市场需求扩大的重要动力。因此,研究人口变动对乡村居民消费潜力的影响,对于探索乡村发展规律、制定乡村发展战略、优化乡村资源配置、提高乡村居民福祉具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文选取2000年至2020年的西藏自治区拉萨市的乡村居民的相关数据进行研究,使用HP滤波法测算拉萨市乡村居民的消费潜力,并使用VAR模型研究人口变迁对拉萨乡村居民消费潜力的影响。研究结果表明:1.2008、2010以及2012年拉萨市乡村居民的实际消费低于消费潜力,而2009、2011以及2014年实际消费高于消费潜力;2.人口城镇率的增长对乡村居民消费潜力的提升有反方向的冲击作用,该作用随着时间推移减弱。最后,本文提出相关政策建议:1.引导理性消费观念;2.完善乡村居民工资性收入增长机制;3、鼓励返乡就业。
Population change is one of the important factors affecting rural development.It not only affects the rural population structure,social structure and cultural structure,but also affects the consumption behavior and consumption level of rural residents.The consumption potential of rural residents is an important indicator to measure the level of rural economic development and quality of life,and also an important driving force to promote the adjustment of rural industrial structure and the expansion of market demand.Therefore,the study of the impact of population change on the consumption potential of rural residents has important theoretical significance and practical value for exploring the law of rural development,formulating rural development strategy,optimizing the allocation of rural resources,and improving the well-being of rural residents.This paper selects the relevant data of rural residents in Lhasa,Xizang Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2020,uses HP filtering method to measure the consumption potential of rural residents in Lhasa,and uses VAR model to study the impact of population change on the consumption potential of rural residents in Lhasa.The results show that:1.The actual consumption of rural residents in 2008,2010 and 2012 was lower than the consumption potential,while the actual consumption was higher than the consumption potential in 2009,2011 and 2014;2.The increase of the urban population rate has an impact on the improvement of the consumption potential of rural residents in the opposite direction,and this effect weakens with the passage of time.In the end,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions:1.Guide rational consumption concept;2.Improve the wage income growth mechanism of rural residents;3.Encourage employment back home.
作者
庞洪伟
黄梓熙
Pang Hongwei;Huang Zixi
基金
西藏哲社项目“西藏新型城镇化和乡村振兴融合的路径设计与政策协同研究”(19CJY05)的阶段性成果。
关键词
人口变迁
乡村居民消费潜力
拉萨市
Population change
Consumption potential of rural residents
Lhasa City
