摘要
中国数据显示,货币政策冲击发生后劳动收入份额表现出逆周期特征,这一发现与基于基准新凯恩斯主义模型得出的结论相反,导致二者差异的原因在于机器人技术的发展改变了货币政策通过劳动力市场影响宏观经济的传导机制。基于此,本文通过建立多阶段新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,考察不同阶段货币政策对劳动收入份额的影响。结果显示,在机器人技术发展水平较低阶段,货币政策冲击发生后劳动收入份额表现出逆周期特征;而在机器人技术发展水平较高阶段,货币政策冲击发生后劳动收入份额则表现出顺周期特征。在此基础上,本文基于社会福利分析法考察了机器人技术不同发展阶段货币政策机制设计。在机器人技术发展水平较低阶段,货币政策应该关注劳动力市场就业因素;在机器人技术发展水平较高阶段,货币政策应该以支持产出增长为目标。
Empirical evidence shows that the share of labor income will be countercyclical after monetary policy shocks hit the economy,which is at odds with the basic new Keynesian models,and the reason can attributed to that the development and application of robots alters the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Then this paper proposes a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with multiple stages of robotics development and application,and examines the impacts of monetary policy on the share of labor income.The result shows that,the share of labor income displays countercyclical(procyclical)response to monetary policy shocks at the stage of low(high)level of robotics development.Further,we analyze monetary policy design with the method of social welfare analysis,and the result shows that monetary policy should consider employment factors in labor market at the stage of low robotics development level,and support output growth at the stage of high robotics development level.
作者
陈利锋
钟春平
李良艳
CHEN Lifeng;ZHONG Chunping;LI Liangyan(Hainan University,570228;Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of CPC,510053;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,100836)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期103-118,共16页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“广东省城市绿色发展绩效量化测算及空间关联研究”(GD19CYJ04)
